economy

The unemployment rate is technically defined by people who are in the labor force - i.e. still looking for a job - but can't find one.   The 10.2% official rate is bad enough, but the real figures may be worse. According to the BLS, the number of 'discouraged workers' rose to 2.4 million.    1.6 million of those have simply given up looking for a job and have not actively looked for work ... read more

Unemployment rate rises to 10.2%, more than expected. Watch for push for "stimulus 2" ... Administration will likely use this to make a drive for more government spending. We need to get manufacturing going again in America and if that requires a "buy American" provision of some kind it is time to give that serious consideration.   We are the only major economic power without a "us first" ... read more

We hear about a possible 'jobless recovery' ... we may be in one already.   Here's a chart comparing GDP gains with unemployment. And remember the scary stat I posted yesterday .. for the first time ever more than 10,000,000 people are collecting some form of unemployment insurance now.   We have to get those people back to work. read more

GDP last quarter grew 3.5%, more than the consensus estimate of economists.   That's good.    Any positive GDP print is better than a continued drop in the economy. Before we break out the party hats, keep in mind a few key points that may make that 3.5% gain much less than the headlines suggest: 1. Dollar-for-dollar we're losing money.  Instead of thinking in percentage terms, think ... read more

As oil climbs higher, there should be real concern it may result in an economic double-dip and a prolonging of the economic slowdown. This 30 year chart clearly shows the inverse relationship between oil prices and GDP.  As oil (red) rises, GDP (blue) falls as consumers cut back on spending and corporate earnings take a hit (aside from the oil companies, perhaps). If oil continues it's ... read more

Former Reform Party VP candidate Pat Choate just published his latest book, "Saving Capitalism." He offers up 6 proposals to grow and strengthen the American economy. Here we hit on 3 of them. ... read more

Some signs of relief in jobs.  The ADP employment survey came in a little worse than expected but still shows some small improvement trends overall. Our guest today, Scott Minerd of Guggenheim, believe we will see much better jobs numbers on a monthly basis going forward and that we will return to positive GDP growth in the second half of the year.  He thinks we are OUT of recession. read more

The spread between the 2 year and 10 year treasury yields continue to widen.    Fed policies largely control the direction of shorter-dated notes, while the overall bond market and investors largely determine the direction of longer-dated bonds. The difference between short and long-term bonds is called the 'yield spread' and it is a measure of varied expectations.  This yield spread chart ... read more

Forget all the deep analysis ... this graphic says it all about why we are where we are. Banks and credit card companies gave it out .. and we took it. ... read more