The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • November 6, 2009 10:36 AM EST by Brian Sullivan

    Is The Real Unemployment Rate 17.5%?

    The unemployment rate is technically defined by people who are in the labor force - i.e. still looking for a job - but can't find one.   The 10.2% official rate is bad enough, but the real figures may be worse.

    According to the BLS, the number of 'discouraged workers' rose to 2.4 million.    1.6 million of those have simply given up looking for a job and have not actively looked for work in more than 4 weeks.   As such they are not counted in the unemployment rate.

    Additionally those who are working part-time but would prefer full-time employment are also not counted in the official number.

    Add those together, and the BLS reports that the "U-6" unemployment rate is actually 17.5%

    The chart below tells the story.   The top line is the work force - those who may not be employed but are looking for work - and the bottom line is the number of people working.   The spread is the unemployment rate.   The number of people out of work is concerning, but the bigger concern may be the top line rolling over ... meaning more and more Americans have simply given up looking.

    11-06-09  Labor Force  Employment (2)

Chiefos McStacy

In 2003 I made $111,000, my skill set (Sales) used to fetch me a good living. I sold advertising to the small business owners. I helped people build get sales by being seen in the Yellow Pages. I had a large and happy group of customers and it was working great for everyone. The problem was that we were starting to make more than the managers. The corporate office decided to hike rates way up and then cut comissions by 75%. now without salespersons, there aren't any sales. Rehire America!

November 9, 2009 at 11:46 pm

Peter Thomas

To You All: Yes the real uemployment rate is around 20%. I work for the Department of Labor generating unemployment statistics. The smoke and mirrors and just plain lies of the Obama Administration are enormous. I have worked for years in this department. Obama is a Communist..you better beleive it.

November 8, 2009 at 3:33 pm

DanSaxton

The Department Of Unemployment Insecurity has been using smoke and mirrors,creative statistics for years.If it's the Rebubs the media points out the real rate of joblessness,but when the Dunbycraps or in well It's only 10% the recession is over.

November 7, 2009 at 11:47 pm

Phil La Mirada Ca.

I think 17% is right,I'm in that statistic,there are no jobs in CA.All the time spent on Health Care is a smoke screen For no intensions for any job creation. Shovel ready means plowing or future generations over with Debt.

November 7, 2009 at 7:05 pm

Cory Martin

Almost Brian, but its actually closer to 21 to 25 percent. But your 17 percent is at least more realistic then what we are told

November 7, 2009 at 8:33 am

Brian

I never used to think that unions helped things, but now starting to believe that a larger union base would help workers. real rate is likely to double before it peaks... would unions help maintain jobs? We need to export the idea of unions to the asian countries where people work for $1 per day.

November 6, 2009 at 4:10 pm

Rodney KENNEY

THEY ALSO DO NOT COUNT PEOPLE WHO'S BENIFITS HAVE EXSPIRED OR ARE ON AN EXSTENTION LIKE THE ONE OBOMA JUST SIGNED. APARENTLY THOSE PEOPLE DON'T EVEN GET THE SIMPLE RESPECT OF BEING COUNTED.

November 6, 2009 at 3:01 pm

jtrailroad

i know the real unployment more like 16 or 17% not just 10.2%this no good is for our nnation. i kne pres Obama stimulus plan wont work and i dont work in finacial world.

November 6, 2009 at 2:57 pm

I Vote, CO

We are about to see another category of unemployment not reported. As the baby boomers reach 62 and become unemployed, they may start Social Security payments to make ends meet, even though they would rather continue working. They will not be counted as unemployed ... but retired. It may provide increasing window dressing to the numbers, but older people are more likely to vote their opinion of job-destroying policies by our un-representatives.

November 6, 2009 at 2:26 pm

Wally

Not that I don't think its concerning if the number of people in the work force starts declining, but I wonder how many of those people leaving the work force are at least seeking higher education or additional training in some way. So, in that sense all of those leaving the work force may not be a bad thing, as presumably when they re-enter the work force, they will be of more value.

November 6, 2009 at 1:56 pm

John

Brian, manufacturing has been moving off shore since the 70's. The ever increasing minimum wage,higher corporate taxes, epa requirements, the ballooning size of government. This drives businesses out of the US. I was in the manufacturing sector in Arizona for 30 years and watched companies move out one by one. The politicians do not get it mostly because they are lawyers and have never had to meet a payroll, hire/fire, etc. We need a cleaning out of Congress.

November 6, 2009 at 1:40 pm

Richard

There is never any mention of the vast pool of American workers called: self-employed, freelance, contractors. Once you add in these folks, I think U-E rate might actually be closer to 25%. I know only a few people who have actually been laid off. I know perhaps 40 people, like myself, who are contract-type freelancers. We have been twiddling our thumbs for a year now, and do not receive U-E. I would have hoped that at least FOX would get some truth out there.

November 6, 2009 at 1:09 pm

jack frayer

The people in Washington and Wallstreet are clueless on why the unemployment is high. This does not bode well for our country nor the world economy. Since the standard models aren't working and educational flaws are obviously prevalent in the talent base, it's time for new ideas from new people. There is a saying that "an old dog can't learn new tricks." I believe that we just need a different instructor.

November 6, 2009 at 11:44 am

Candie Ft. Morgan, CO

There's 2 things you forgot why our companies are moving to China. Enbedded taxes, having to match social security and medicare. And the Unions. do away with taxes being withheld and give people their money, go to a "Fair tax" and get rid of the Unions, they was the money from the people to lobby congress and for eletcion conributions mostly to dems, but they all are bought . T We need to build a new white house cause the one in DC has been sold to Soros.

November 6, 2009 at 11:27 am

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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