The President wants to raise fuel economy standards for vehicles in America. His proposal would also help resolve differences between the states and Federal government.
It is a noble goal, and much will be made of it. But we've seen this movie before. Since the CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) standards were created more than 30 years ago, there have been many attempts to raise them (see below). Most of those attempts were unsuccessful for a variety of reasons, not the least of which was opposition by the auto industry. Back in 1990 a few on the Hill tried to push a 40mpg average fuel economy standard. That went about as far as I can throw a keg.
So here we are again ... and there are new questions this time:
1. Will the single party control of Washington enable Congress to truly pass tough standards?
2. Will Detroit's weakened condition remove some of their opposition ability?
3. Cars can already get 40mpg (Prius, some othe hybrids, etc) so why wait until 2016?
Lots of questions that remain to be answered.
Thanks to my team here for putting a history together of the CAFE standards...
(MY = model year)
1975 - The "Energy Policy Conservation Act," enacted into law by Congress established CAFE standards for passenger cars and light trucks (The Act was passed in response to the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo) The near-term goal was to double new car fuel economy by model year 1985.
Passenger car standards were established for:
MY 1978 (18 mpg)
MY 1979 (19 mpg)
MY 1980 (20 mpg)
MY 1985 and thereafter (27.5 mpg)
1979-1981 - Light trucks are designated by either 2WD or 4WD
1982-1991 - Light trucks can use 2WD, 4WD or combined designations
1992-2003 - Light trucks only use a combined designation (20.2 to 20.7 mpg)
1990-2001 - CAFE Standards were frozen in place as car manufacturers began producing larger, less fuel-efficient vehicles like minivans and SUVs that greatly appealed to consumers and need to abide only by the more lenient fuel economy standards of light trucks
Fall of 1995 - Congress approved "freeze" legislation that ordered the DOT not to impose any CAFE increases during the 1996 fiscal year, which covered the 1998 model year for vehicles (they renewed this each year through 2000)
2000 - Toyota and Honda launched their new gasoline-electric hybrid models - the Toyota Prius and the Honda Insight
2001 - Freeze on CAFE standards was finally lifted by Congress as part of Bush's overall national energy policy.
March 2002 - NHTSA issued an NPRM proposing to extend the availability of the CAFE credit incentive for dual-fueled vehicles for four years, through the end of the 2008 model year
March 2002 - Senate passed an amendment sponsored by Sens. Carl Levin (D, Mich.) and Christopher Bond (R, Mo.) that ordered the DOT to study the issue and propose new CAFE standards in two years
March 31, 2003 - NHTSA issued new light truck standards, setting a standard of 21.0 mpg for MY 2005, 21.6 mpg for MY 2006, and 22.2 mpg for MY 2007
April 2007 - the Supreme Court granted the EPA sweeping authority to regulate tailpipe emissions as a danger to human health
December 2007 - The mandates in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) switch to "attribute-based standards." This switch will help to ensure that increased fuel efficiency does not come at the expense of automotive safety. It will require that the fleet of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States during MY 2020 is at least 35 mpg.
May 2008 - NHTSA published a proposal to begin implementing EISA by establishing CAFE standards for MYs 2011-2015. A draft final rule for those model years was completed, but not issued.
January 26, 2009 - Obama issued a memorandum requesting that these prposals be issued and that the NHTSA divide its rulemaking into two parts
March 23, 2009 - The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) amended EPCA by mandating that the model year (MY) 2011-2020 CAFE standards be set sufficiently high to ensure that the industry-wide average of all new passenger cars and light trucks, combined, is not less than 35 miles per gallon by MY 2020.
May 19, 2009 - Obama administration will unveil national tailpipe emissions standards and mileage requirements Tuesday, which will force automakers to dramatically boost the efficiency of vehicles by 2016 (4 years ahead of the current deadline) to a fleet-wide average of 35.5 miles per gallon, but also give them a single national standard.
(Source: Department of Transportation, CAFE Overview - Frequently Asked Questions, http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/CARS/rules/CAFE/overview.htm)
(Source: National Highway Travel Safety Administration, http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/portal/site/nhtsa/menuitem.43ac99aefa80569eea57529cdba046a0/)
(Source: Detroit News, "White House to require 35.5 mpg by 2016" by David Shepardson, May 18, 2009)
(Source: Facts on File, Fuel Economy Standards, http://www.2facts.com/ICOF/temp/27488tempi0800140.asp?DBType=ICOF)
Brian, Just for fun; let's graph the increase in CAFE standards vs. the decline in the US auto industry. Gas costs, up or down are not the real cost of these standards. The real cost is the decline in US dominance in this most important and strategic industry (along with the decline of all related manufacturing). Full disclosure: I work in the auto industry but, 20 years ago I went back to school to learn Japanese because the current state of the industry was almost a foregone conclusion once the Detroit 3 were forced by CAFE to make small, unprofitable vehicles. The President has put the final nail in their coffin.
May 20, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Atl mover
Can't wait to see all the exceptions that will be made to these standards if the UAW are give control of the US auto companies. It will go like this um big "O" we can't sell enough pea shooters that get 50 mpg in order to meet the new average. It seems our customers actually need to transport kids, dogs, and supplies....and to make things even worse we can't blame the management...we are the management and you told us what cars to build.
So we will get these great headlines in huge print about the fantastic new mpg figures achieved and then they will have ****** and then notes in small mice type saying the MPG figure exclude SUV, Minivan, and all full sized cars.
May 20, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Bert
Here's what the world looks like from inside a Ford dealership. The UAW guys working for Ford came to an early agreement with management because since 2006 Ford had been trying to get their ducks lined up. They are UAW, but now in the same category as the GM & Chrysler guys. Next, vehicle quality is up and we see this in the drop off we have had the last several years in factory-paid warranty work. Next, we have a healthy fear of government & UAW owned Chrysler and GM. We fear the government will tilt the playing field towards Chrysler and GM since the two main stakeholders there are the government and the UAW bosses. They can do this through making inexpensive financing available to their companies and their surviving dealers while Ford will still have to go to the markets to continue financing. We will have to fight hard to remain independent and the best way we can do this is to provide a product that customers want and here at the dealership level, provide customers with the support for that product better than our government owned competitors can. We are in Texas so for us this is like the Alamo. We are part of the last free US auto maker and we want to keep it that way.
May 20, 2009 at 10:27 am
Henry B
You hit the nail on the head with the call on Prius, etc. I guess the pres. wants to show who is the boss. What no one seems to mention is that when (not if) this comes to fruition we are going to be taking a huge hit on federal gasoline taxes as well as state taxes. Using less gasoline dictates higher taxes automatically. I don't think anyone will see gasoline prices at the pump at less than $3.50 per gal.; probably over $4.00. Good luck on this one folks. Be prepared for smaller, lighter, less safe auto's. This is a no win for the consumer. But, we'll stop at the pump less often ........ WOW!
May 20, 2009 at 10:26 am
Pamela
Gas costs are really ONLY a burden on those who drive to work and back each day. Most other drivers don't put in enough miles for gas costs to matter much.
May 20, 2009 at 9:19 am
Corey in GA
1. Congress can easily pass tough legislation due to the single party control and...
2. Total control of Detroit now being achieved by the ObaMessiah, leaving middle class Americans with no voice in Gov't other the UAW (remember, the ones associated with organized crime, who now want to be able to intimidate you until you sign a card, and have that be your ONLY vote in choosing your work environment?).
3. Government Motors will need to make a 40mpg car before they can enact the standard.
These standards will lead to an even more humorous pricing structure where Prius type cars cost $10k and "guzzlers" like a standard V6 Accord will cost $50k. Want to have a family? Better pony up $90k for that basic Odyssey. Maybe only $70k for the basic Kia Sedona. Even with $4 gas, "vintage" 2012 SUV's will be worth more than present sticker price in 2016 since 1 SUV will be worth 25 econoboxes for the new CAFE.
I was keeping track of the Ford reliability figures, and they were getting to the acceptable point where I might have looked. But now, United Auto Welfare will have to stick with taking more tax dollars to get their income from me.
May 20, 2009 at 7:52 am
Adam
The reason that the gas mileage sucks so bad is these morons in DC that keep tacking on these rediculous safety specs that keep making cars heavier and heavier. My 1985 VW weighs in at a whopping 2100lb. A new one (equipped as close to the same as you can get) weights a stupid 3200lb. And don't even get me started about someone's beloved Civics....they used to weigh 1800lbs (and get over 50mpg for the HF models) and now are well over 3000....maybe Dumbama needs to look at that before completely killing the auto industry (not just American, but all cars sold in the US). I completely agree with the diesel comment too, but like you said...that's too easy and the gov't will never go for such a logical solution with all these idiot liberals in office.
May 20, 2009 at 7:31 am
Bill
I think it's GREAT the Democrats and the Unions now own the US automakers. They can no longer claim "corporate greed" for their problems. When they point their finger across the table, they'll be pointing to their buddies. Can you say implosion! Great drama! But what a shame.
May 20, 2009 at 6:40 am
monkeyfurball
The UAW cronies bought democrat votes and the obamacrook politicians were more than happy to send their buds billions in taxpayer money to be wasted in an eventual bankruptcy. I will never buy an American union made car again. But that's an easy statement since I haven't bought one in 30 years anyway.
May 19, 2009 at 10:31 pm
earle
The only way these CAFE standard can be met is weight loss,without sacrificing safety. Carbon Fiber Molded bodies now used in auto-racing are the key. They can be mass-produced,along with strong structural sturts made of the same carbon fiber mesh material.It's cost effeicient,and the state-of-the-art technology can be readily applicated. Currently,their are proto-types being tested as I write. Thanks,Brian(:
May 19, 2009 at 2:31 pm
mike
FWIW, a slight note of caution when talking about any of the figures the DOT puts out... with some digging the actual underpinnings are fragmented, were never finished, and are cited for conclusions they cannot fully support. Been there...
Also FWIW, RE: your 3rd question, bearing in mind that you can't alter reality by wishing... Forget hybrids, 'least near term,& leave a question mark for total environmental impact. Like ethanol, this tech's a loser from technical & actual impact perspectives, but without ton's of lobbyist funding. [Do you use 1 pen for printing & 1 for writing - why not? 2X motors = 4X prob.]
To ask why not tomorrow, is to ask why Chry. & GM? The overall question however is what are you & other drivers willing to do without? Nice interiors? Enough power for big hills & passing? Towing capability? H/Duty A/C? Power everything? Auto trans? Cramped rear seating? The list goes on... And that stuff is the reason we don't average 35 mpg today.
May 19, 2009 at 2:04 pm
6ftrabbit
Actually, it wouldn't be that tough. Change the transmission gear ratios a bit, and switch to diesel would more than do it. That's too easy tho. No money in it either.
May 19, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Bert
The monster we call "The Law of Unintended Consequences" just roared a hearty laugh and
galloped out my new car showroom towards Washington D.C. Seems like everytime we just about have him chained up, someone in D.C. feeds him, he gets strength and he breaks loose again. This time however, it will be OK. Since we taxpayers are now owners of Chrysler and will soon be GM's owners, let him rip. When community organizers can run car companies, maybe soon it will be the turn of car guys to run the government. Who knows?
May 19, 2009 at 11:51 am
Pamela
Now that Obama has put all republican car dealers out of business and owns GM and Chrysler, it can push through any laws it wants to. I'll never buy a union-built vehicle again.
May 19, 2009 at 11:15 am
aboutthis blog
Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block.
Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.
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Tom
Brian, Just for fun; let's graph the increase in CAFE standards vs. the decline in the US auto industry. Gas costs, up or down are not the real cost of these standards. The real cost is the decline in US dominance in this most important and strategic industry (along with the decline of all related manufacturing). Full disclosure: I work in the auto industry but, 20 years ago I went back to school to learn Japanese because the current state of the industry was almost a foregone conclusion once the Detroit 3 were forced by CAFE to make small, unprofitable vehicles. The President has put the final nail in their coffin.
Atl mover
Can't wait to see all the exceptions that will be made to these standards if the UAW are give control of the US auto companies. It will go like this um big "O" we can't sell enough pea shooters that get 50 mpg in order to meet the new average. It seems our customers actually need to transport kids, dogs, and supplies....and to make things even worse we can't blame the management...we are the management and you told us what cars to build. So we will get these great headlines in huge print about the fantastic new mpg figures achieved and then they will have ****** and then notes in small mice type saying the MPG figure exclude SUV, Minivan, and all full sized cars.
Bert
Here's what the world looks like from inside a Ford dealership. The UAW guys working for Ford came to an early agreement with management because since 2006 Ford had been trying to get their ducks lined up. They are UAW, but now in the same category as the GM & Chrysler guys. Next, vehicle quality is up and we see this in the drop off we have had the last several years in factory-paid warranty work. Next, we have a healthy fear of government & UAW owned Chrysler and GM. We fear the government will tilt the playing field towards Chrysler and GM since the two main stakeholders there are the government and the UAW bosses. They can do this through making inexpensive financing available to their companies and their surviving dealers while Ford will still have to go to the markets to continue financing. We will have to fight hard to remain independent and the best way we can do this is to provide a product that customers want and here at the dealership level, provide customers with the support for that product better than our government owned competitors can. We are in Texas so for us this is like the Alamo. We are part of the last free US auto maker and we want to keep it that way.
Henry B
You hit the nail on the head with the call on Prius, etc. I guess the pres. wants to show who is the boss. What no one seems to mention is that when (not if) this comes to fruition we are going to be taking a huge hit on federal gasoline taxes as well as state taxes. Using less gasoline dictates higher taxes automatically. I don't think anyone will see gasoline prices at the pump at less than $3.50 per gal.; probably over $4.00. Good luck on this one folks. Be prepared for smaller, lighter, less safe auto's. This is a no win for the consumer. But, we'll stop at the pump less often ........ WOW!
Pamela
Gas costs are really ONLY a burden on those who drive to work and back each day. Most other drivers don't put in enough miles for gas costs to matter much.
Corey in GA
1. Congress can easily pass tough legislation due to the single party control and... 2. Total control of Detroit now being achieved by the ObaMessiah, leaving middle class Americans with no voice in Gov't other the UAW (remember, the ones associated with organized crime, who now want to be able to intimidate you until you sign a card, and have that be your ONLY vote in choosing your work environment?). 3. Government Motors will need to make a 40mpg car before they can enact the standard. These standards will lead to an even more humorous pricing structure where Prius type cars cost $10k and "guzzlers" like a standard V6 Accord will cost $50k. Want to have a family? Better pony up $90k for that basic Odyssey. Maybe only $70k for the basic Kia Sedona. Even with $4 gas, "vintage" 2012 SUV's will be worth more than present sticker price in 2016 since 1 SUV will be worth 25 econoboxes for the new CAFE. I was keeping track of the Ford reliability figures, and they were getting to the acceptable point where I might have looked. But now, United Auto Welfare will have to stick with taking more tax dollars to get their income from me.
Adam
The reason that the gas mileage sucks so bad is these morons in DC that keep tacking on these rediculous safety specs that keep making cars heavier and heavier. My 1985 VW weighs in at a whopping 2100lb. A new one (equipped as close to the same as you can get) weights a stupid 3200lb. And don't even get me started about someone's beloved Civics....they used to weigh 1800lbs (and get over 50mpg for the HF models) and now are well over 3000....maybe Dumbama needs to look at that before completely killing the auto industry (not just American, but all cars sold in the US). I completely agree with the diesel comment too, but like you said...that's too easy and the gov't will never go for such a logical solution with all these idiot liberals in office.
Bill
I think it's GREAT the Democrats and the Unions now own the US automakers. They can no longer claim "corporate greed" for their problems. When they point their finger across the table, they'll be pointing to their buddies. Can you say implosion! Great drama! But what a shame.
monkeyfurball
The UAW cronies bought democrat votes and the obamacrook politicians were more than happy to send their buds billions in taxpayer money to be wasted in an eventual bankruptcy. I will never buy an American union made car again. But that's an easy statement since I haven't bought one in 30 years anyway.
earle
The only way these CAFE standard can be met is weight loss,without sacrificing safety. Carbon Fiber Molded bodies now used in auto-racing are the key. They can be mass-produced,along with strong structural sturts made of the same carbon fiber mesh material.It's cost effeicient,and the state-of-the-art technology can be readily applicated. Currently,their are proto-types being tested as I write. Thanks,Brian(:
mike
FWIW, a slight note of caution when talking about any of the figures the DOT puts out... with some digging the actual underpinnings are fragmented, were never finished, and are cited for conclusions they cannot fully support. Been there... Also FWIW, RE: your 3rd question, bearing in mind that you can't alter reality by wishing... Forget hybrids, 'least near term,& leave a question mark for total environmental impact. Like ethanol, this tech's a loser from technical & actual impact perspectives, but without ton's of lobbyist funding. [Do you use 1 pen for printing & 1 for writing - why not? 2X motors = 4X prob.] To ask why not tomorrow, is to ask why Chry. & GM? The overall question however is what are you & other drivers willing to do without? Nice interiors? Enough power for big hills & passing? Towing capability? H/Duty A/C? Power everything? Auto trans? Cramped rear seating? The list goes on... And that stuff is the reason we don't average 35 mpg today.
6ftrabbit
Actually, it wouldn't be that tough. Change the transmission gear ratios a bit, and switch to diesel would more than do it. That's too easy tho. No money in it either.
Bert
The monster we call "The Law of Unintended Consequences" just roared a hearty laugh and galloped out my new car showroom towards Washington D.C. Seems like everytime we just about have him chained up, someone in D.C. feeds him, he gets strength and he breaks loose again. This time however, it will be OK. Since we taxpayers are now owners of Chrysler and will soon be GM's owners, let him rip. When community organizers can run car companies, maybe soon it will be the turn of car guys to run the government. Who knows?
Pamela
Now that Obama has put all republican car dealers out of business and owns GM and Chrysler, it can push through any laws it wants to. I'll never buy a union-built vehicle again.