February 2009

We often hear about 'big government' and how it's getting bigger.   I wanted to check the data to see if it's hyperbole or reality.   Its not hyperbole.   According to official government data (ironic) it turns out that government - Federal, state, local and military - has the single highest payroll of any "industry." The table below is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' official income ... read more

Stories I'm watching this weekend: Fox Business wins battle to uncover where your money is going The PITI-ful reason the mortgage rescue plan won't work The White House tries to get ahead of the "bank nationalization" chatter Stanford is the latest apparent fraud to use a tiny little accounting firm BusinessInsider: a look at Stanford's billionaire ... read more

Nearly every comment I've received from trusted contacts and investors says the same thing: we need a concrete plan from the Treasury and the President about what will happen with the banking system. Today shares of Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) took big hits again.  Citigroup broke below $2 bucks and BofA is at a price not seen since 1984.   Stock investors are saying - ... read more

There is a great scene in the 1993 movie "The Fugitive" where a U.S. Marshall played by Tommy Lee is looking for the missing Dr. Richard Kimble (Harrison Ford) who was accused of killing his wife and is now on the run.   In the hunt for Kimble, Jones asks a hospital worker some general questions and the worker spits out, unprompted, "I haven't seen Dr. Kimble."   Jones looks at him and ... read more

Got the following note from a contact about the current markets.   He runs multiple billions and has been correct in predicting the situation so far. Here's his view on what's happening right now: Failure to announce a plan from Treasury. Failure of the Fed and Treasury to follow through (When is the Fed going to buy Treasuries?) Failure to raise confidence. (How many times does the public ... read more

The President likes to say that we are in a nationwide housing crisis.   While there is no question we are facing an American economic slowdown, is the real estate bust truly a nationwide phenomenon and one that merits his recently announced foreclosure prevention plan?   The numbers suggest it is not. As one of our smart viewers pointed out, the "crisis" seems to be mostly limited to ... read more

Stories I'm watching this Thursday: Governors consider rejecting stimulus money Seeking Alpha's excellent breakdown of the Obama mortgage plan Imagine Hollywood celebrities selling Obama's mortgage plan .. it may happen You can also imagine billionaires saving hundreds of millions in the stimulus plan because that, too, may happen Holman Jenkins op/ed on how Democracy ruined the ... read more

Do we have a stimulus split coming? News breaking Wednesday night that a few GOP state governors are considering turning down stimulus money, citing concerns about attached Federal strings and the long-term impact of the borrowed money.   Meantime left-leaning blogs are egging the Governors on, suggesting that if they so opposed the stimulus plan then declining the money is exactly what ... read more

Part of the President's newly announced housing plan is to grow the size and power of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by allowing them to buy more mortgage securities and, theoretically, loosen credit in the housing market.    The Administration wants to help up to 5 million homeowners refinance loans that are backed by these two government sponsored enterprises (GSEs).    The plan would ... read more

Stories I'm watching this Monday, Presidents Day: More bad news from Japan, despite the fact they had their own massive stimulus plan years ago There will be no "car czar" position Does the appointment of the Treasury Secretary to head the auto team tell us anything about the long-term prospects of GM and Chrysler? President Obama is moving fast, but ... read more