The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • December 30, 2008 12:03 PM EST by Brian Sullivan

    GM Numbers: $6 billion, 621 and 0%

    Cheap and easy credit helped get the American economy into this mess, but apparently cheap and easy credit is going to get us out.   At least that's what General Motors is hoping, but the government-backed easy money may create more headaches than it cures.

    Today the government agreed to give GM financing arm G.M.A.C an additional $6 billion dollars.  It's a move to help GM provide financing for consumer car purchases and comes on top of the $174 billion dollar loan provided to GM and Chrysler.  The market likes this news and GM shares are on the rise, but will this meaningfully change the game for the company?

    Tougher credit has been a part of the downward spiral of General Motors.    As the Journal article notes:

    GMAC finances about 80% the wholesale purchases of GM's cars by dealers world-wide. It has traditionally been the largest source of financing for the actual buyers of those vehicles once they reached the showroom.  The car company said last month that a 45% sales skid for October was fueled by GMAC's restricted lending, which cost GM anywhere from 45,000 to 60,000 sales in the month. About 25% of GM vehicle sales were financed through GMAC last month, down from more than 40% a year ago.

    Credit is blamed for some of the pain, but it doesn't mean that more easy credit will provide the solution either.   There are some telling numbers that give a different view, one that mitigates some of the optimism around the GMAC announcement today.  Let's start with the size and scope of the numbers.

    The $6 billion dollars GMAC received today certainly will not all go toward financing GM cars, but to make a point about what the money may mean let's say that it does (and with GM's announcement today that it is now offering 0% financing for up to 60 months on many cars the company is clearly covering more and more of the cost). $6 billion dollars used entirely for financing would pay for 200,000 vehicles selling at $30,000 each.    While GM would love to sell an additional 200,000 cars and trucks, this is actually a fairly small number.   Remember, even with November's 41% drop in sales GM still sold 153,404 vehicles in the U.S that month.    Clearly GM won't finance 100% of the cost of a car, but even at lower percentages it is difficult to see how this additional $6 billion will meaningfully move the GM sales needle.    $6 billion is real money, but for a company with hundreds of billions in revenue per year it is actually a drop in the financing bucket.

    There are two other potential negatives here as well; more delinquent car loans and the continued destruction of the value of cars on the road by flooding the used car market.

    With everyone fixated on home foreclosures few are looking at the auto-related problem: delinquent car loans and repossessions.    According to lender Capital One Financial, nearly 10% of its car loans were late, with more than $100 million dollars being deemed uncollectable.   Other articles note this trend is national, with more and more consumers unable to pay their car loans on time, if at all.    Credit agency Experian notes that loans at least 60 days late have risen by 12.7% in November from last year's same period.

    Still, GM announced today that it will lower the required credit score of car buyers eligible for GMAC financing from 700 to 621.   Credit scores, known as a FICO score, run from 850 down to about 350.   850 is considered perfect credit and anything below 620 is considered subprime.    This is presumably how GM arrived at the 621 credit score figure for lending cut off.   Credit has been available for people with credit score above 700 (about 55% of the population) but apparently those consumers haven't been biting.   So GM's answer is to give credit - using government money - to the 25% or so of the population with credit scores just above subprime.

    Second, the car market is already saturated with cars for sale.  Prices are weak as both new and used car dealers try to do what they can to move cars off the lot.    Repossessed cars and cars coming off lease add even more inventory.    Yet GM is doing its best to push new cars out the doors to borrowers who may end up becoming delinquent on the loan, sending more cars to auctions and onto used car dealers' lots.    This pushes prices down further, and the cycle begins again.

    General Motors and its 6,000-plus car dealers need to sell cars to support an infrastructure built in large part on the 16 million cars sold as early as two years ago.    They seem unwilling to accept the new reality that it may be difficult to sell 11 million cars in 2008, with Nissan predicting a similar sales figure for next year.    Even if the lower credit score borrowers GM is tempting with taxpayer funded dollars buy a new car, the data from Capital One and other shows that about 1 in 10 are likely to pay that loan late or not at all.

    We have too many foreclosed homes, we don't need more repossessed cars in their driveways.

Gary Driscoll

Get ready for the $15 billion every quarter that will be needed to support GM and Chrysler (and the UAW) in the style to which they would like to become accustomed.

December 30, 2008 at 12:32 pm

Ralph Harrison

My credit score will enable me to qualify but I want to see lower prices, much lower prices like 35@ of MSRP. Let's see deals like retailers are making and then we will see some sales.

December 30, 2008 at 12:43 pm

moving

When it's all said and done the desperate three will either become quasi government like Fannie/Freddie or government will have given 150 billion of our money over the next year or two (or another option will be both happen....we give over 100 billion dollars and then the companies become federalized).

December 30, 2008 at 12:49 pm

NIck

Don't forget,that 0% financing is only obtainable by paying a hefty down payment at signing.Most will not get the 0%,since most don't have any "real" money in hand.The one's with the credit scores around 621,will be the first to fall for this tactic though.0% has always been just a tool to dupe consumers into coming in.

December 30, 2008 at 1:08 pm

Gerald Beabout

"My credit score will enable me to qualify but I want to see lower prices, much lower prices like 35@ of MSRP. Let’s see deals like retailers are making and then we will see" I agree with this 100%, give us a real deal not loan scam to sell product.

December 30, 2008 at 2:26 pm

will t

no money down is needed at all to get 0% financing. in fact, if this promotion is like any of their prior ones you probably only need a 650 credit score to get the 0% with no money down(as long as you don't plan to finance a negative balance from a previous loan into the purchase)

December 30, 2008 at 2:43 pm

TJ Hummingbird

The party is over and everyone better find their own ride home. The big three are so far beyond repair that to me the only sensible idea is to take the money that we are doling out to these lame ducks and form a new automaker. One who can START OUT where the government wants the big three to be. Wouldnt it make so much more sense to keep the jobs that are needed and begin making smarter decisions in manufacturing new vehicles and the infrastructure to make them viable? How hard is it to understand that companies fail. It is a basic truth that has helped shape our country's economy. The distribution of 717 billion dollars (year to date) that could have been spent wisely, instead of trying to pull off the most expensive patch job in world history, shoudl be a common sense call. If these banks failed because they lent money to people who could not afford to pay them back, the bank goes under. A successful firm should aquire the paper for change on dollar and these revenues should have been collected. And if these american car makers want to continue to make obsolete vehicles when the technology exists to revitalize the industry, let them belly up. In this world its sink or swim. The comman man is doing all he can to keep his own head above water without having to buy the floaties for a bunch of wealthy shortsighted schmucks. Let the big three fail and help new brands acquire the factories and workers needed to succeed. And cut the UAW off. Period.

December 30, 2008 at 3:18 pm

Gary Driscoll

“My credit score will enable me to qualify but I want to see lower prices, much lower prices like 35@ of MSRP. Let’s see deals like retailers are making and then we will see I agree with this 100%, give us a real deal not loan scam to sell product." Let's see. The old saying goes: lose money on every unit and make it up on volume! Unless the companies can cut costs very significantly (already pretty much ruled out by the UAW), they need 25% higher prices to survive.

December 30, 2008 at 3:43 pm

Troy

How about placing a tax on all automobiles made by a foreign manufacturer whether produced in this country or not to level the playing field? Until the media starts to look at how foreign companies "assist" their domestic industries the believers in the "free market" myth can keep their "ideological purity" to themselves.

December 30, 2008 at 4:42 pm

Listening in Texas

Which shell is the "pea" under? The UAW has a multi-million retreat and 6 million golf course and WE are paying for it? They can give me 0% interest all day on a car or truck; I still do not like their forcing all this bailout on us and this has left a VERY bad taste to deal with them on any terms; much less the shell game that car dealers play. Regardless of credit scores; they still need to move cars and as long as I have to pay for their bailout; no interest rate will be sufficient to get me to purchase one of their cars. We are supporting the UAW with their Country club and Golf Course -- as long as they hold on to that; I will choose now to deal with Toyota. My current SUV is a Jimmy with over 300,000 miles. It has been a very good vehicle. I just can't deal with GM anymore under these terms.

December 30, 2008 at 4:49 pm

TJ Hummingbird

Why would we try to tax foreign automakers to "level the playing feild"? Toyota manufactures vehicles right here in the USA and so does nissan, bmw, mercedes, saturn, and hyundai. They are all experiencing drastic sales decreases but we the taxpayer are not being forced to bail out those companies who operate cleaner plants, employ thousands, and build better looking vehicles with much better quality and fuel efficiency. The dumbest thing Chrysler ever did was sell the patent to its turbine engine its engineers built in the early sixties. Who bought this 150 mpg engine that delivered as much horsepower as a hemi with the gas mileage of a moped? Exxon. Thats right, our government can step in and give away money made by the working man, but they cant step in and strip the hold of a patent that would DRASTICALLY REDUCE OUR DEPENDANCE ON FOSSIL FUELS, FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC. Either they are ignorant to this fact or they are in on the scam, either way- OUR GOVERNMENT HAS BECOME THE BIGGEST LIABILITY OUR NATION HAS. I SMELL A REVOLUTION BREWING!

December 30, 2008 at 5:32 pm

bruce

What about the cars?...Every once,in a long while, someone will ask this question during the ongoing discussion about bailouts, givebacks, labour, management, etc in regards to the Detroit auto industry. Well what about them? Does anybody give a damn about what the American car buyers want? Apparently not. Bob Lutz thinks all the government has to do is 'stimulate' the economy to the point 18 million of us will go out and buy cars on an annual basis and all will be right. I'm skeptical, what if sales do go back up, but not at the Detroit three? This is a far more likely scenario, given their lackluster product line. Someboby needs to tell Detroit, "YOUR NAKED!"

December 31, 2008 at 6:49 am

Listening in Texas

If GM can't make it on selling SUVs and other high profit cars -- how will they ever be able to repay any "loan" building electric cars that at gas at $1.50 a gallon will never offset the additional costs of the Hybrid? Example using a Honda Civic Using Base models. Base price of a regular Civic is around $19,000 Amortized at 7% over 4 years would be around $455 per month. It gets 26/34 MPG Driving at an average of 10,000 miles in town and 25,000 highway (using numbers that many people actually drive and where I can find an eventual breakeven point) Comparable Hybrid version is around $23,000 ($4,000 more) Payment is around $550 per month at 7% over 4 years It gets 40/45 MPG Cost to operate over 4 years Using blended miles of 35k; it costs the regular Civic an average of $1,668 per year for fuel. The Hybrid uses an average of $1,200 or a difference of $468 a year or $1874 for 4 years. The payments are $95 more a month for an additional $4,560. $4,560 - $1,874 = $2,686 more to operate the Hybrid car versus the same comp equiped regular gas version. To get to the break even point between the cars; gas needs to be around $3.65 per gallon and still driving 35,000 per year. Now the cost in fuel is for regular Civic is $4,087 and the Hybrid is $2,940 for an annual difference of $1,107 per year or a total of $4,428; and we still have not overcome the total difference in the additional cost! Lets not forget the $7,000 Hybrid battery that needs to be replaced in 5 years.

December 31, 2008 at 7:05 am

Charlie

It's not that the government has the final say, we have a vote. If these bailouts are not favored just vote with your money, boycott GM. This should send a clear message to all that are raiding our tax money and sending us into a new economic world.

December 31, 2008 at 8:48 am

earle

There's only one caveat to your article Brian. This could be a long shot,but the American public could rally around the,"Buy American Mantra"? It's doable if GM shows any kind of remorse,and foward thinking. If they set the "PR" tone in sync with the republican's& Bush, wrapping themselves around the american flag,...anyway graet read, and "Happy New Yera's,Brian"

December 31, 2008 at 5:52 pm

Al

Listening in Texas, You nor ajyother have paid nothing on what the UAW has. It has been paid for by the unions members. The government has paid one red cent to the UAW. t The UAW has spent many years develpoementing this education center for all members of the UAW. The members are not only auto workers but come from several different organizations. When the auto companies pay off the loans, and they will, no taxpayers money will be lost. Why can't the auto companies get loans on their own? The very same reason no one can get loans. The banks are not making loans and why not? Government regulations. Government regulations have caused most of the problems in this whole meltdown. The same politicans you want to stop yhe bailouts are the same ones that have sat on their donkeys and let the country get into this economis mess.

December 31, 2008 at 6:38 pm

Al

Import balance of payments: I've ask this on different blogs but don't really get any answers. What effect does the negative balance from what we import to what we export, have on our domestic economy? When you answer this, I believe you will understand why we have the financial mess we are in.

December 31, 2008 at 6:58 pm

Tbessi2

As a diehard Chevy guy I intend to never buy another GM or Chrysler product for personal or business use ever again. But I do promise to buy american as long as they don't steal our money without our permission. I think I'm just going to have to swallow my pride and buy Ford. As much as I hate to admit it they build good trucks. I think the goverment has made a huge mistake bailing out all these people. They have destroyed all acountability. It doesn't take a math wizard to figure out there isn't going to be room for 3 big American auto companies next year. I hope our governments ignorance doesn't cost Ford everything. Just think of the market share they would have gained if GM & Chrysler went under. I can't believe anyone believs GM will really disapear completely. Thats highly unlikely. They may file bankrupcy and go under, but I bet 2 or 3 companies spring up from the ashes of their few successful product lines and shed the anchors drawing the down. The few could then grow to be an american car company we could be proud of. After all they would have learned from their parent company's mistake. I remember one lecture from my college professor who warned about getting caught in the gamble of small margins and high volumes. One bump in the road in volume and you'll lose everything. Its better to stay at home drinking bear and eating pretzles than to risk everything on such little reward.

January 1, 2009 at 5:49 pm

shawnf (texas)

The bail outs need to stop! It is time to let companies go bankrupt so they are forced to reorganize or they can close permanently. Just like creditors force people into bankruptcy for their poor financial decisions it is time companies and executives are forced to take responsibility for their poor management and choices. Why should a CEO, whose job is to increase shareholder value, be paid millions of dollars while the choices they have made have destroyed billions in shareholder value?

January 3, 2009 at 1:27 pm

Maids

All of us smaller businesses are suffering and the people who caused it go away scott free. We are the real people who increase share holder value in the form of jobs. We had to lay off one a very hard working crew on Friday, too many of our customers are cancelling due to financial reasons. Where is Bush through all of this? You hardly ever hear from the guy?

January 11, 2009 at 10:27 am

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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