The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • December 18, 2008 02:01 PM EST by Brian Sullivan

    "Outrageous" 2009 Predictions

    Denmark-based Saxo Bank each year comes out with a list of "outrageous" predictions for the next 12 months.    According to the firm they are an "attempt to predict rare but high impact 'black swan' events that are beyond the realm of normal market expectations. Compiled as part of the bank's 2009 Outlook, the thought exercise this year present a dismal view of the global financial landscape."

    Here are a few of Saxo Bank's "outrageous" predictions for 2009:

    1. There will be severe social unrest in Iran as lower oil prices mean that the government will not be able to uphold the supply of basic necessities.
    2. Crude will trade at $25 as demand slows due to the worst global economic contraction since the great Depression.
    3. S&P 500 will hit 500 in 2009 because of falling earnings, vaporizing housing equity and increased cost of funds in the corporate sector.
    4. Chinese GDP growth drops to zero. The export driven sectors in the Chinese economy will be hurt significantly by the free-fall economic activity in the Global Trade and especially of the US.
    5. Reuters/ Jefferies CRB Index to drop to 30% to 150. The Commodity bubble is bursting, with speculative excesses so large they have skewed the demand and supply statistics.

    David Karsbol, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank says "it is not even outrageous to call this the worst economic crisis ever. We have, regrettably, been rather precise in almost all predictions from last year. What used to be outrageous now seems to be the norm.

    What are some of your predictions for next year?

Michael

My prediction is the American Automakers will get out of the outdated union contracts through bankruptcy. They have the right products, however, they are priced to high. No one should receive 95% of their compensation if they are not working. The end of this robbery by the unions will make the US Auto Industry able to compete in the global marketplace.

December 18, 2008 at 2:42 pm

Gary Driscoll

Dow Industrial average below 5000. Unemployment above 10%.

December 18, 2008 at 2:55 pm

6ftrabbit

Sure, I'll play. All cars will only be permitted to drive downhill in order to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

December 18, 2008 at 2:55 pm

Truman

Congrats on using FIA ! I was thinking that is a valid means for discovery.

December 18, 2008 at 5:09 pm

Brian Curtis

My outrageous prediction for 2009 is that the United States will return to a gold standard—not voluntarily, but because with hyperinflation, people will no longer accept dollars as payment in spite of legal tender laws.

December 18, 2008 at 5:32 pm

Listening in Texas

Predictions for 2009 Stocks DOW below 5000; range between 4200 and 4600. Foreclosures will continue and government will request a moritorium for a few months so the current inventory will be given a chance to be absorbed. Automakers; will be come the Big 2; major changes in the industry and possibly the end to the UAW. Lending practices will change. Down payments on cars will be the norm. Housing loan programs will lighten up from current standards only slightly. Unemployment up to 15% maybe up to 18%; no jobs available. Gitmo will not be closed. No one wants the prisioners. The war in Iraq will continue and not stop as Obama promised. Many more banks will fail. 50 - 50 odds that Obama will quit and resign as president since he cannot vote "present" and learns what the REAL job entails. Dems will attempt to form National Health Care. The deficite will skyrocket to around 2 trillion or 4x what the end of 2008 budget was. Oil prices will go down to $25 or just under then level out around $35 a barrel. One in 3 will be in some form behind in payments or upside down on their properties. People will look to be arrested so they can have 3 meals a day and a roof over their head. All those who have been foreclosed and cannot get a job and get at least a place to rent. Prices will stay down; but many people will not have any money to spend at any price. Just some dire predictions. Not much on the good side.

December 18, 2008 at 6:03 pm

Mark O'Neal

Dow will stay in the 8,000 to 9,000 range. Foreclosure inventories will decrease. Dramatically lower oil/commodity prices will outweigh the medias desire to predict our demise......American will begin to spend. Someone will note that the "experts" can't agree on anything......then.... Things will be just fine...as soon as some one strangles Chicken Little.

December 18, 2008 at 6:21 pm

James

I predict that: Osama will be killed by US unmanned drone. Iran will block the strait of Hurmoz. Iran will collapse economically. Reza Pahlavi will return to Iran as the monarch.

December 18, 2008 at 7:48 pm

earle

Stagflation will rear it's ugly head at the end of q4/2009 ; q1/2010 to the n'th degree compared to the "Oil Crises of 1973",and to quell Chinese/Amerian trade relations we will abandon Taiwan! This trade-off will be necessary ,and yet could be a precurser to WW3,...

December 18, 2008 at 8:22 pm

Ra King

As more and more people will be having time on their hands due to massive layoffs, look for people to go to Washington to riot. Value of the dollar will be zero around Febuary, People will spend a great deal of time trying to protect their food, property, and their lives. Sorry.

December 18, 2008 at 9:03 pm

Jim from Denver

1) Hedge funds will disappear 2) Deficit spending will soar but no one in the federal government will care because borrowing costs will be so low 3) 2009 will be a walk in the park compared to 2010+ when those borrowing costs skyrocket due to high inflation

December 18, 2008 at 10:01 pm

Restore the constitution

I predict that Henry Paulson will become the most hated man in America and will go to prison in what will come to be known as TreasuryGate

December 18, 2008 at 11:51 pm

Ben Morgan

15% Unemployment. No jobs available. Suicide rates triple compared to highest ever recorded 1 in 4 people declare bankruptcy Increase in viral epidemics, fewer seeking preventive healtcare (costs) Petty thefts nationwide puts strain on law enforcement Value of homes decreases an additonal 40% Prostitution crimes skyrocket At least one major college/university closes its doors due to low enrollment high overhead Multiple families living under one roof rises to 15%

December 19, 2008 at 3:26 am

William S.

Israel will take out Iran's nuclear facility, possibly using a bunker-buster / nuke 1-2 punch. Iran/Syria will declare war on Israel. The U.S. will NOT side with Israel but try to remain neutral dispite our presence in Iraq and Afganistan. Crime will increase sharply, especially home invasions, armed robbery, etc. Deflation will subside as the money inventory explodes in the U.S., leading to inflation (and probably hyperinflation by 2010). Georgia will be re-invaded by Russia. The U.S. will do nothing. Oil will go up toward the end of 2009, maybe sooner if war breaks out in the Middle East. A terrorist attack will take place on U.S. soil. Perhaps a series of small attacks as opposed to one large 9-11 style. Inflation will lead to a run on the dollar and the beginning of the end for T-Bills. Congress will NOT investigate the collapse of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac nor anyone from Congress who was involved. Stock market will hit a low somehwere between 5000-6000 (DJIA). And just to throw in some 2010 predictions... Hyperinflation. Global food shortages. Expansion of Middle Eastern war to include Russia. Oil will soar. U.S. will be in a deep depression. Crime in the U.S. will be rampant. A push for a Civil Defense Force in the U.S. will be made (maybe succeed) Secession will be openly discussed by one or more States but not come to fruition. Unemployment will hit 15%+. Welcome to the Fourth Turning folks.

December 19, 2008 at 7:55 am

Andy K

Doom and gloom, Doom and gloom. It takes time to recover. This has only been going on a couple of months. We as a people must pull together(at least the working people) and take back what is ours. Everyone out there is partially to blame for this mess. Most people live beyond their means and it finally caught up to us. Just this time it happened to be worldwide instead of nation wide. I am scared to, but with a little more positive outlook from both the people and the media, this will end much sooner than if we all stay negative Hang on America, we will come through this probably stronger and wiser. We have always had crooked political leaders, dishonest business and labor heads, and up and down economies. Lets arrest the thieves,oust the crooked leaders and get back to what we do best, building things and giving our kids better lives than we had. And by the way MERRY CHRISTMAS everyone. Better times are coming. That is my prediction ,whether it happens or not is up to us.

December 19, 2008 at 9:47 am

William S.

Andy K, I really hope I am wrong and you are right. And Merry Christmas to you too.

December 19, 2008 at 10:33 am

Stroker Ace

The government will give tax breaks for every American car you own or buy!!

December 19, 2008 at 10:41 am

Shawn

I started a list but with all the dire stuff already here I quit. I will say that if we keep on the same path we are on now,America will fail.

December 19, 2008 at 10:58 am

Thomas M. E

How about this: The US will finally take the lead in alternative energy More Windfarms Solar platforms produced More Hybrid autos produced in US (may become the leader) Unemployment drops because of all the new jobs opening up Troops will be pulled out of OEF/OIF National Guard units will be used as border security for their states (that is their job anyway) More Americans will joing the military (steady paycheck and great medical benefits) President Obama will appoint me to his Staff

December 19, 2008 at 11:18 am

Marlie

Smart, innovative business people will refuse to participate in the recession and grow new small businesses and hire all the other smart people who other companies let go. Things will even out although the press will continue to fuel fear (sort of like the current administration) but be angry because no one pays them any attention.

December 19, 2008 at 2:49 pm

Thomas Lewis

Obama takes office and stimulus checks of at least $1,500.00 each will be sent out in time for Valentines day. The spirit of change from the U.S. will be felt around the World and create an environment of positive thinking. Much need regulation of the Banking industry will return, credit card companies will be forced to cap their rates at 20%. Universal default will be declared illegal, minimum credit card payments will be required to partially reduce the principal. Credit card companies will be required to apply payments against charges in the order they took place and not allowed to apply against the lowest interest rate amounts first. Credit card companies will no longer be allowed to raise rates on balances that existed prior to a rate increase and they will be required to automatically reduce rates in the same manner in which they increase them. In order to insure fairness in the financial markets lenders will be required to post their rates in the same manner as gas stations and they will no longer be allowed to charge a person a higher rate of interest based on a credit score. Fair Issac will be exposed for the fraud that it is. The Patriot act will be overturned the Fair and inaccurate Credit Transactions Act will be exposed for the fraud that it is and completely overhauled to become a truly fair and accurate system. A new task force will be created to investigate 911, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the Bush administration will be Investigated and prosecuted for their involvement, numerous top Republicans will be arrested, tried and convicted of numerous crimes against the public, financial crimes, war crimes, and terrorism around the World. The United States will begin to be respected again, Americans will begin to regain their pride and dignity as loop holes that invite criminal activity are slammed shut and people will begin to regain their trust in others. And most of all the negativity and evilness of the Bush administration will be overtaken by Goodness, Fairness and Godliness, with Truth, Liberty, Happiness and Prosperity for all those who deserve and for all those who were unjustly stripped of those things. Good things are coming to those who have faith and believe that all is not lost and the Best is yet to come……….. And let only God help anyone who ever tries to hijack this Country again. Come on everyone, let’s show the World what the U.S. is really all about…………

December 20, 2008 at 4:36 pm

LEM

The Supreme Court hears litigation on Jan. 9th 2009 on wether or not Obama is a US citizen. They find he is not in a 6 to 3 decision and Bush remains in office under marshall law until a new election is held. Meanwhile, guard everything there are riots in the streets that make the LA riots look like a game.

December 22, 2008 at 2:08 pm

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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