November 2008

I've been in Chicago the last few days.   This is definitely one of the most impressive and enjoyable cities in the world.    The architecture alone is worth a visit and the people are terrific. The city has experienced a boom in real estate the last few years.    There are many impressive new buildings dotting the skyline.   But if one type of building permit is a good indicator, ... read more

Nearly two years of campaigning will mercifully come to a close tomorrow.     While the political noise is hitting a high pitch in the final push, the markets are fairly quiet.  This morning the futures are little changed, the bond market hasn't changed much and Japan was closed overnight. While the world watches our polls, the market has already turned its collective eye toward the ... read more

The economy matters to Presidential elections.   Just how much it matters is dramatic. The following three electoral vote maps show that during major economic crises, the incumbent and his party not only generally lose, but lose big. In 1840 challenger William Henry Harrison beat Martin Van Buren on the back of the banking and real estate crash of the preceding year: In 1932, Franklin ... read more

Two pieces of news on GE this morning that run counter to what we should aim for in the United States. First, its reported that the U.S. Treasury is considering using more of its $700 billion dollar rescue fund to buy stakes in more companies, including aid for General Electric's GE Capital unit.   GE has come out today and said it is "not expecting" to take any funds, but if they are ... read more

Stocks traditionally don't move much the day after Presidential elections.   Below are the Dow Jones Industrial Average percent changes the day following an election from 1972 until 2004. Note that the data from 1972 - 1980 is calculated from the day before the election because until 1980 the market was closed on voting day. Bush 2004: +1.01% Bush 2000:-0.40% Clinton 1996: ... read more

Changes to the tax laws may be coming.   If that happens, watch companies such as H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) and Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (JTX).   When tax codes change, more people may require personal advice.  We may also see more married couples filing separately instead of jointly to avoid higher tax bills based on income.   That means more returns filed. Additionally, if more ... read more

A funny thing happened this morning following last night historic win by Barack Obama.   I got on the 6:45am train in New Jersey, hopped on the subway for my short ride to Fox studios, and realized that things seemed relatively ... well ... normal. My fellow commuters sipped their coffee, read the paper and tapped away furiously on their blackberrys.   In other words, doing what they do ... read more

The tap on the bailout keg is still flowing and the new home builders are the latest group looking for a drink. Fox Business’ Senior Washington Correspondent Peter Barnes reports that less than 24 hours after the election the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is ready to slap a proposed bailout bill for new home sales onto Congress. Here are some of the details Fox ... read more

WASHINGTON -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told the Wall Street Journal that she is considering a two-staged effort to boost the shaky U.S. economy, arguing for action now on a stimulus package of $60 billion to $100 billion, followed early next year by a companion measure that would include a "permanent tax cut." It appears Speaker Pelosi isn't wasting any time to get out ahead of the new ... read more

General Motors (NYSE: GM) today said what many have speculated over the past year: it is running out of cash, fast.   The company reported a net loss of $2.54 billion dollars and said it burned through $6.9 billion in cash last quarter. More worrisome, the company said it has enough cash and short-term money to get through this year, but without significant cuts, a major uptick in ... read more