November 30, 2008 10:19PM

The Retail World Didn’t End This Weekend

By Brian Sullivan

Despite dire predictions from many analysts and much of the media, Americans actually went shopping this weekend. In fact, we went shopping over the past three days more than we did as a nation last year. Remarkable considering last “Black Friday” weekend we had (at least on the surface) a much better economy.

Here is the headline for this weekend according to the National Retail Federation:

Though the holiday season is far from over, retailers across the country are breathing a collective sigh of relief after shoppers headed to stores and websites in droves over the weekend. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2008 Black Friday Weekend survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 147 million shoppers last year.*

Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 this weekend*, up 7.2 percent over last year’s $347.55. Total spending reached an estimated $41.0 billion.

So not only did we not drop off a retail cliff, sales overall actually rose from last year’s totals.

I’ve been saying on the program for the past week that when you look at long-term retail sales charts, there are rarely times that sales fall overall and for very long. Only in small periods (74/75 and 79/80) have retail sales taken absolute drops for any significant period of time.

It would be dangerous to try and predict the remainder of this holiday shopping season. The Retail Federation notes that while sales were higher, a greater percentage of people (39.4%) also said they were done with their shopping versus the same percent last year (36.4%). It indicates some daring Black Friday shoppers were merely those looking for uber-discounts who will then close their pocketbooks and spend no more. That said, history shows Americans are a shopping culture and even with the poor economy it is unwise to bet against the consumer for long.

13 Responses to “The Retail World Didn’t End This Weekend”

Comment by Jon

November 30th, 2008 at 11:38 pm

Sales were up, but were profits up? Did retailers have to mark down merchandise this year more than in previous years to attract reluctant shoppers? For how many retailers was this a truly “Black Friday”?
Comment by Jon

November 30th, 2008 at 11:40 pm

Sales were up, but were profits up? Did retailers have to mark down merchandise this year more than in previous years to attract reluctant shoppers? For how many retailers was this a truly Black Friday?
Comment by John

December 1st, 2008 at 11:26 am

Whatever tey did, they still made more money this year than last. We should be satified in a world gone in a financial abyss.
Comment by movers

December 1st, 2008 at 1:31 pm

Sales were up!!!Let that sink in for a moment. If we “the consumers”are buying that is the economy and that is hopeful. I believe most retailers are having to work hard for the sale but that is alot better than not selling (which is what many people thought would happen). No it’s not all good but let’s promote the positive (we are getting plenty of the other side to keep us in check).
Comment by Harold Maass

December 1st, 2008 at 3:33 pm

Hi Brian,

I just wanted to let you know that THEWEEK.com linked to your article today in a piece we wrote titled ‘Black Friday less than bleak,’ (http://www.theweek.com/article/index/91209/3/Black_Friday_less_than_bleak). We enjoyed reading your take on this subject.

Thanks, and all the best,
Harold Maass
Editor
THEWEEK.com
Comment by Cats

December 1st, 2008 at 6:33 pm

Sales were up for whatever reason yet the stock market tanked on speeches by Bernanke and Paulson. The so-called “investors” on Wall Street are really the “day traders” with their computerized sell and buy programs that are whipsawing the market and putting those of us with retirement and long-term investment accounts so far in the hole that many will never see a return of their lost moneys. Maybe it’s time for the federal government to require the return of the defined benefit pension plans to protect future retirees. Personally, I have a lot of cash that I’m holding onto until who knows when.
Comment by Vinicio

December 2nd, 2008 at 2:59 pm

Sales were up 7% over last year’s Black Friday. The liberal media adds a negative spin by citing a survey that 70% of the shoppers were only there for the discounts. Well duh!, isn’t that what Black Friday has always been about?
Comment by Gary

December 2nd, 2008 at 11:41 pm

I am still completely amazed at the negativity of the press and many of the posters on these comments boards. Things are not as bad as they are portrayed by the drive-by press and by the 15-minutes-of-fame economists that they dredge up to support their views. Yes, it’s a bad time for a lot of us, but it isn’t going to get much worse and soon it will get a whole lot better.
Comment by EnronNation

December 3rd, 2008 at 4:00 am

Mr. Sullivan,

Here is one insight that just crossed my mind.

When Bush set up 2 billion in incentives for new nuclear power plant s? 4 250 millions and 2 500 million ‘cash is yours JUST for trying’ ?

Wall Street responded saying for THIRTY YEARS the private sector AND Wall Street CLEARLY doesn’t find nuclear worthy of backing.

so, that made sense and all was well, even though they gave the money out anyway to friends and well ? You know ? you get the money even IF your plant’s construction is cancelled.

Now, it occurs to me that the financial institutions having money pumped in, the insurance sector (you were right), the auto sector, and who else ? WE’ll see - but I’d say if the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ? has to prop these up ?

I’d say we’re living in a fantasy world where ‘mom and dad’ to the rescue to help us pretend these companies actually have value.

Do you see ? If the markets ‘left alone’ will determine the right pricing ?

The fed should be kept out entirely of the picture, to let who falls - fall.

In successful models in nature ? If a species host is weak ? rather than JEOPARDIZE THE ENTIRE SPECIES ? it dies, and the species moves on.

We have jeopardized ALL for a select group of the few.

I don’t know about you, but little means anything when you consider the market values are now CORRUPTED by fed injections.

It will take SOME time for prices to actually settle and reveal TRUE value.

It’s a serious loss. It’s a sad say in America, and well, if Dick Cheney was right - heh, and America NEEDS higher priced oil ? ha ha ha

Oil is going to take this country down the tubes.

And it’s a damn shame we let the petro cartel have this much power in the White House.

I think I’ll explore writing children’s stories on how to help reveal ethics breaches.

Bush never spoke of the withdrawl consequences from his SELF PROMOTED addiction to oil by the US consumer.

People believe what they’re told. I see middle aged women with the products that are marketed to them, I see people who drink Sprite, watch MTV and don’t even KNOW about Viacom’s relationship to Sprite - heh, ALL the while buying into some prefab music product - further constructed JUST for them.

I see people who believe the people of Sierra Leone digging for their J.C. Penney - give her something special this year - diamonds really WANT to do that.

I see people who believe what the TV tells them.

Gotta wonder how much damage was done by Cavuto shoving ‘There IS no recession’ down our throats for the last year, ALL the while ? It’s like telling a cancer patient - don’t worry, you’re fine, then - ONLY to find out they’re in stage III small cell and wasted the last 12 months of their life in delusion.

I want to see some accountability over there.

I want FBN to come forward and EXPLAIN why the ‘no recession’ being shoved down peoples throats ? was a responsible decision, otherwise, you’re just a NewsCorp Prop with one goal - MISINFORMATION.

AND THAT - is FTC, FCC and SEC fraud.

No WONDER they’re all ‘consultants’

one more step to dislodge criminal or ETHICS related accountability.
Comment by EnronNation

December 3rd, 2008 at 4:00 am

Nice town Winchester, but it’s not representative of any other town.
Comment by EnronNation

December 3rd, 2008 at 4:01 am

Maybe Lexington Mass.
Comment by chuck

December 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 am

Brain why not look at the Real Estate Investment Trusts which own the some of the mall space for retailers? Like for instance here in Vicksburg Ms,most shoppers here hardly don’t shop here in Vicksburg all though the local President of the Chamber of Commerce would try to convince you otherwise. At this time of year,Pemberton Mall which has seen numerous closings and openings of businesses CBL can’t satisfy the local customer base. With some of the closings and brick and mortar retailers like Barnses and Noble which is less than forty-five minute drive down the interstate; most of the locals don’st shop in Vicksburg. Becouse of this town’s lack of competiveness in the retail arena. When small towns with narrow minded leaders block competition like this town has done they don’t consider the consquesnces. Now businesses that want to locate here I wouldn’t be surprise if the Local Chamber of Commerce wants thier hand in the pie too. To the locals the the local chamber is a joke.
Comment by Theresa

December 3rd, 2008 at 12:15 pm

The series is entitled “My Hometown.” Winchester is our hometown and it is your opinion that it is not representative of any other town. However, that wasn’t the point was it?

I, for one, am proud that given all the other places Brian has lived, he chooses to call Winchester home and love all of the pieces he did from our wonderful historical downtown area. We are proud to be a vital part of this country’s history and it’s future.

Thank you Brian for a great day of television viewing. Wish I could have come down and said hello to my classmate.