The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • October 27, 2008 09:03 PM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    The Pension Fund Problem to Come

    Will 70 become the new 62?   Americans are living longer and retiring younger.  Pension fund problems to come mean that trend may reverse quickly.

    We continue as a nation to retire younger.   More workers are making smart investment and retirement decisions and that's helping say "so long" to the working world at an earlier age. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the average "exit" age from the workforce has dropped from 66.9 in 1950-55 (the study is done in 5 year increments) to 62.0 years in 2000.   Five years earlier.   Good work!

    As we retire younger, we live longer.  Our lifespan continues to hit a record in America.   The accounts vary,  but on a whole its safe to say the American lives to be an average of about 75 years old.   Women live to an average age of 80, men drag the average down.   And this upward trend is going to continue.  The Center for Disease Control estimates that the average lifespan in America will increase by another 2 years by 2015.  Even men may live to be 80 someday.

    The good news: work less, live longer.

    The bad news: work less, live longer.

    Many Americans still rely on pension funds for their retirement.   Those pension funds count on their investments doing well to help fund the growing population of retirees.    With the Dow down more than 40% this year and bonds also taking a hit, look for underfunded pension plans to become the next big story in this already weak economy.

    To understand the issue facing non-governmental companies, consider this:

    According to a new report from Mercer, large corporations saw their pension plans lose a collective $70 billion off their combined funded status during the volatile first quarter. Adrian Hartshorn, a principal in Mercer’s financial strategy group, pointed out that pension plans sponsored by S&P 1500 companies are now only 98% funded.

    That "new" article is from April.   Well before the stock market took a nosedive.  The figures have become worse.   A story from Pension & Investments online reports:

    “The U.S. market is down over a third, and that’s good compared to the emerging markets that are down over half this year alone—so that 61 percent in equity may not be doing that well,” [S&P analyst Howard] Silverblatt said in the report. “When you calculate it all out at the current market returns, or even assuming a nice Q4 rebound, you get a number that is worse than the $219 billion in underfunding reported in 2002.”

    A few companies have noted in their earnings this quarter that their pension funds have taken a hit.   The overall tally isn't known yet, but we can look back to get a idea as to who may be suffering most.  Look to this article from 2004.   It lists the most underfunded pension plans of that year, with airlines and auto-related companies near the top of the chart.   For most of 2004 the S&P 500 hovered between 1,100 and 1,200.   It closed at 848 today, a nearly 50% drop from when concerns about pension fund problems began to appear.

    This is not just a private company issue.  It will also impact states and localities.    George Will recently wrote an excellent piece on the pension "timebomb" to come.   As part of it he notes:

    Credit Suisse estimates that state and local governments have a cumulative $1.5 trillion shortfall in commitments for retiree health care.

    Will wrote that piece back on September 11th.   Given that the real market pain didn't start until the credit-freeze of mid-September, its likely that figure has grown significantly.    The FT reports:

    In the nine months to the end of September, the average state pension fund lost 14.8 per cent, according to Northern Trust, a fund company. The loss has grown since, as financial markets slumped further in October. The previous highest loss for state funds was 7.9 per cent for the full year in 2002.

    California's Calpers, the US's biggest pension fund, last week reported a loss of 20 per cent of its assets, or more than $40bn, between July 1 and October 20 this year.

    No doubt many of the current obligations are met and we haven't heard of any pension funds saying they couldn't make payments to their retiree beneficiaries.   But with stocks down big, the number of retirees expected to grow, and states facing other problems with declining state income, property and sales tax revenues it raises real questions about future solvency.

    Many pensions are backed by the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation.    It insures the pensions of 44 million workers.   Just last week it agreed to take up the obligations of bankrupt lumber company Pope & Talbot.

    But the PBGC is facing its own problems.   The agency last week said it lost $5 billion dollars in stock investments and expects a deficit of $10 to $12 billion this year.   It has $68 billion in assets and $83 billion in liabilities.

    No one is talking about the PBGC having its own funding problems.   Yet.   It doesn't take much to see though that the trend is in the wrong direction, with more major companies facing funding shortfalls and other potential problems.  It not wrong to wonder where the ending is.  And the agency isn't helping us understand.  Despite repeated calls for an interview with the Agency's director they continue to decline.  We will keep calling.

    There are two main takeaways here.

    First, many Americans and politicians have an erroneous view that stocks are for "rich people" and not them.   Wall Street remains a mysterious world, operated largely behind closed doors by mad scientist math wizards.   The pension problem proves nothing could be farther from the truth.   The teachers, cops and other government workers who trust their retirement to companies such as CalPERs may suddenly take a keen interest in equities.

    The other reality is that many Americans will have to work longer than planned.    Companies and governments may not have the ability to cover costs for people retiring at 62 and living another twenty years.   The math of early retirement + living longer / awful stock markets simply will not add up.

Gary Driscoll

"First, many Americans and politicians have an erroneous view that stocks are for “rich people” and not them. Wall Street remains a mysterious world, operated largely behind closed doors by mad scientist math wizards." Now Wall Street been exposed as operated behind closed doors largely by greedy manipulators, frauds, and thieves, only sticking their hands out for taxpayer handouts.

October 27, 2008 at 10:15 pm

shawn reeves

Ive saved 15% of my wage since 1992. I now know that the 401k investment is a big mistake. Ive already lost almost 50% and the gang of three Obama Pelosi and Reid have plans to redistribute the rest. This is criminal. I dont know about you but Im considering withdrawing what I have left stopping 401k contributions and the money I save going into my own savings account for retirement. Trouble is I dont even trust the banks to hold my money anymore. As for my pension that was capped and discontinued , I believe it will be stolen too. Until we run all the congressmen and senators out on a rail and into jail where they belong or this middle class rape will continue. We must keep Obama out and vote the rest out. Our country and what it stands for is at stake.

October 27, 2008 at 10:57 pm

NIck

I still contend that market value of corporations and commodities are WAY overvalued,due to pensions,401Ks,IRA's,etc.,, With so many average people,injecting money into corporations,commodities,etc.,,some not even knowing what they're invested in,tons of money has been used that hasn't necessarily been earned or made,but instead invested via the average worker saving for retirement.One big ponzi scheme to inject money into the system that wouldn't have been there. Take a look at the stock market over the last 100 years.Look at that HUGE uptick in value that started in 1982. What else started in 1982?The 401K tax plan.

October 28, 2008 at 10:00 am

Gary Driscoll

Prior to 1982, people actually had pension plans, though. That money was mostly invested in the stock market. Now a fair number of people do not have any plan, including a significant 401k. Admittedly, many of those retirement plans were underfunded, so I don't know how much retirement money was actually invested then compared to now. That would be an interesting study!

October 28, 2008 at 10:17 am

Devere McLennan

The economy goes in cycles of boom and bust always has and always will. The solution on taxes is a National Sales tax to replace the income tax system. The country would save Billions on tax collection. The rate is easy to figure by setting it to match expenditures, and every time Buffet buyes a new plane or suit we will collect our fair share of taxes. We will also then collect taxes on all the drug money as it get spent,etc. Congress would not like this system beause anytime they voted for Pork barrel programs they would need to raise the tax rate and the people would want to know why.

October 28, 2008 at 11:14 am

B Scott

This is not news, thinking people for years have been saying that the Gov,t will simply move pension age up to , say 70/75, pension problem solved..Do I hear their may be a medicare problem,Gov,t solution,eliminate health care for seniors...problem solved.How about a future problem with opposition to Gov,t during election, Gov,t solution, how about a 1 party system..problem solved.

October 29, 2008 at 10:51 pm

Jim Hermann

Oh, those pesky pensions! What pensions? That's what most people are saying. The general public is under the impression that pensions taken over by the PBGC receive the full benefit of their pension. The truth is you'll be lucky to get ten cents on the dollar. Having been in the airline industry for 35 years having worked for TWA, on my 65th birthday I will receive $152 a month pension. What's so evil about all these companies destroying their pension plans, you're too old to work another 35 years somewhere else to try to replace what's been destroyed. The PBGC has taken over so many pensions of steel and airline workers its almost bankrupt itself. Now that most companies no longer have conventional pensions as a defined benefit plan, now they have started to eliminate the 6% (or less) match on the 401K plan basically offering nothing at all. A poor trade off compared to the old guaranteed benefit. In addition to the $152 a month I'll receive from the PBGC, since last summer I've lost $100,000.00 in my own 401K. Well, at least I don't have to worry what I'll do with my spare time in early retirement!

October 30, 2008 at 12:10 am

Gloria

I'm hearing rumors that companies will stop matching their employee's 401K contributions.

October 30, 2008 at 12:39 am

DAVE-Y

This video is 2 hrs long but explains exactly what is going on. It has ALL happened before. It is ALL choreographed. The politicians are bought and paid for and the Constitution might as well be written on toilet paper. We neeed to bring back the guillotine and return the money supply to the governments and the people. This ongoing gang-rape of the taxpayers by the banks and the governments does NOT have to happen. Educate yourself. Eventually enough people will KNOW whats going on and we can change things. This video will likely get spiked but it's worth the effort. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936&q=the+money+masters&total=1234&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

October 30, 2008 at 10:27 am

Kathleen Manning

The "funded status" of pension plans are now required to be reported on a "mark to market" basis. This reflects a very "transactional" view of obligations which are long term in nature. The recent nose dive in the equity markets will certainly reduce the funding status reports of major corporations, but the focus of pension plans should be long term solvency and success. The liabilties are measured based upon current interest rate benchmarks which fluctuate daily - pension obligations are long term and paid out over decades - Private sector pension plans have been over regulated and dis incentivized so that today fewer than 1/3 of private sector employees are currently covered. This represents a reduction in the standared of living for many Americans. The congress has done nothing to encourage employers to maintain these plans and instead punishes them with more regulation. By the way, Federal employees and most public sector employees have pension plans and these public sector plans have escaped the onerous pension regulations imposed by Congress on the private sector plans.

October 30, 2008 at 6:17 pm

Dave Swiderski - Penn State University

There are so many publicly-traded companies today with under-funded pensions it's scary. To determine if your company is one of them, simply go to the latest annual report and look at the current value of the pension plan asset and then subtract the current pension liability. If it's a negative number, your company's pension is under-funded.

October 31, 2008 at 5:04 am

Dave Swiderski - Penn State University

This is in response to Shawn's blog: If you have a trust issue with banks, have you ever considered joining a credit union? The members are the owners - not the shareholders. Secondly, I disagree with your assertion that the 401K is a bad investment. Everyone's account is down right now but it will come back. Despite the talk about COngress taking over the 401Ks, it will never happen. I can't begin to imagine the public outrage over that. Just remember, the only ones that have gotten hurt in 401Ks are the ones that jumped off the roller coaster early. You cash out now, you're really going to hurt yourself.

October 31, 2008 at 5:10 am

Bill Switzer

Maybe better off with a fruit jar and a deep hole. But then with increasing age and loss of memory, still no answer. But one thing sure. No hope of Obama wins.

October 31, 2008 at 8:05 am

gab

The real issue that is hinted at but that's never quite stated outright is this: Stocks are inherently risky. Too risky for retirement plans. We've been sold a bill of goods when it comes to equities. You'll hear, "over extended periods, stocks go up 10% a year." Well, yeah, but that period is VERY long. Too long for the average investor who, at some point, has to cash out and live off the savings.

October 31, 2008 at 6:31 pm

Steve Bourg

Note to Author Brian Sullivan: You write about non-govt and govt pension plans without pointing out that they are WORLDS apart. Non-govt plans (that still exist; they're becoming extinct) are modest by comparison, usually providing about 30% of final pay at age 65 with no COLA adjustment during retirement years. Govt plans are MASSIVE by comparison, usually providing 70% of pay at age 55 WITH COLA adjustments during ret. Non-govt plans have been designed to cost the 'er about 6% of payroll. Govt plans cost 20% of pay to 50% for judges and police.........this sort of massive ripoff of taxpayers is one of the sneakiest aspects of govt entities around the country. By age 55, a govt pension is worth about 5 times as much as a non-govt pension at age 55. A teacher at $60,000 pay who retires at age 55 with $40k/year pension with COLA, has earned a pension that's worth nearly $1million. Judges and police have even more egregiously high values. The pension funding schemes by govt entities are NOT subject to the ERISA minimum required funding rules and interest rate requirements to value the liabilities. The sham on taxpayers goes on and on and on.

November 1, 2008 at 7:57 am

David Hutson

Hey, as long as we have a strong contender for election to the Presidencey advocating that we trash the U.S. Constitution and allow the Supreme Court to redistribute income and wealth, why not do a preemptive strike. Bush could declare martial law. Send the U.S. Martial to arrest Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and any of the other scoundrels who are shown to be complicit in this Fannie-Mae/Freddie-Mac scandal. Conduct the necessary trials and then have a public hanging in front of the U.S. Capitol for any found guilty. At the same time Bush could suspend or eliminate the capital gains tax, either for a specified time, or permanently by executive order. Reduce the corporate tax rate to a range of ten to fifteen percent, making the United States a tax haven rather than a tax "prison", (or better yet abolish the income tax and adopt the "Fairtax"). Some very respected economists who obviously know a lot more about this than I do are advocating this kind of comsumption based system for revenue collection. (A number of countries are looking seriously at this idea right now for the purpose of attracting business and industry to locate within thier borders.) And finally, for a long lasting remedy to government spending problems: an executive order establishing a limit on government spending to 20% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). This could serve as a strong example to any politicians still in or coming in to office. And, this kind of "house cleaning" could probably go a long way toward restoring trust and conficence in our economy and government. What would anyone like to bet that this could cause Bush's public approval rating to go to around 90% withing a week? Right now a huge number of people in this country are hungry for a "hero" to "fix" things, and I submit that this idea is certainly not more radical, (in the long view of things) than what the Democrats and their "Chosen One" are proposing. Once the economic situation stabilizes and the perpetrators of treachery have been dealt with, martial law could be suspended and a new election set for........lets say 2010.

November 1, 2008 at 1:07 pm

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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