The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • October 22, 2008 10:50 AM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    Fewer Earners, More Burners: When Does it Stop?

    A friend of mine in software sales told me that a quote in his office is that "there are earners, and there are burners."   Less conversationally some call it the "20/80 rule."   20% of a company brings in most of its revenue and, in a sense, pays for the other 80% to be employed.   Those 20% don't mind the hard work, long hours and time away from their kids because (hopefully) they are compensated for it.   It's the trade they are making.

    We may have to change that "20/80 rule" to the "5/95 rule."

    Some starting figures brought to light today from Carnegie Mellon University Professor Adam Lerrick regarding the current tax burden on America's earners and how that burden will dramatically increase in coming years:

    In 2006, the latest year for which we have Census data, 220 million Americans were eligible to vote and 89 million -- 40% -- paid no income taxes. According to the Tax Policy Center (a joint venture of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute), this will jump to 49% when Mr. Obama's cash credits remove 18 million more voters from the tax rolls. What's more, there are an additional 24 million taxpayers (11% of the electorate) who will pay a minimal amount of income taxes -- less than 5% of their income and less than $1,000 annually.

    In all, three out of every five voters will pay little or nothing in income taxes under Mr. Obama's plans and gain when taxes rise on the 40% that already pays 95% of income tax revenues.

    Consider that.    49% of Americans will pay nothing in taxes to the Federal government.   In total, three out of every five voters will pay nothing or next to nothing.   The Federal government collects around $1.1 trillion per year in income tax revenue.   This means that less than half of America's top earners will have to cover those expected revenues.   The key is that these are earners.

    Professor Lerrick continues by rightly noting that under the proposed Obama-Biden tax increase on those who contribute the most to the American tax rolls, eventually the incentive to earn more diminishes, forcing the government to look down the income scale for that lost tax revenue:

    What next? A core group of Obama enthusiasts -- those educated professionals who applaud the "fairness" of their candidate's tax plans -- will soon see their $100,000-$150,000 incomes targeted. As entitlements expand and a self-interested majority votes, the higher tax brackets will kick in at lower levels down the ladder, all the way to households with a $75,000 income.

    Calculating how far society's top earners can be pushed before they stop (or cut back on) producing is difficult. But the incentives are easy to see. Voters who benefit from government programs will push for higher tax rates on higher earners -- at least until those who power the economy and create jobs and wealth stop working, stop investing, or move out of the country.

    The question Professor Lerrick asks is a good one.   At what point do the country's top earners simply throw their hands up in the air and give up?   Many two-income households who are in the lower end of that top earning group may have to revisit their expenses.  When you factor in the cost of child care, many families may find its simply easier to have the lower earner in the family quit, drop the child care costs and move into a smaller home.    If, in a sense, the entire income of the lower earner in the family is simply going to the Federal government, why work?

    Remember we are talking about income taxes on families that make more than $250,000 per year.  They make it.   We are not talking about wealth taxes.   Income taxes go after paychecks.   Those are people and families who are working each day, commuting, getting on planes and missing time with their familes.   The couple making $250,000 per year in income is working for that money.   We are not talking families with massive trust-fund fortunes because their grandfather invented some widget that was sold for hundreds of millions of dollars.   Those familes are likely fully invested in municpal bonds and thus making millions in tax free interest every year and paying nearly nothing in income taxes.

    The message is clear: penalize the earners and they will have less incentive to earn and more incentive to burn.

EcoMom

I agree. Will it take a severe depression for people to wake-up and make a change in our government's policies? And, will the change be a lot less government and a lot more freedom? Or will people still look to the government to rescue them and give-up their freedoms, which will lead to this country's ruin?

October 22, 2008 at 11:28 am

al lintel

I agree and will further note that Americans have largely agreed with this reasoning over the last few decades. Here is the problem today: What Americans see as the “wealthy” are the Wall Street Ivy League crooks that walked away with hundreds of millions while the rest of us got screwed. The anger at these bums is so strong it is distorting our evaluation of the Obama tax plan.

October 22, 2008 at 11:53 am

Eric W

How Long Do We Have? About the time our original thirteen states adopted their new constitution in 1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years earlier: 'A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government.' 'A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.' 'From that moment on, the majority always vote for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.' 'The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years' 'During those 200 years, those nations always progressed through the following sequence: 1. >From bondage to spiritual faith; 2. >From spiritual faith to great courage; 3. >From courage to liberty; 4. >From liberty to abundance; 5. >From abundance to complacency; 6. >From complacency to apathy; 7. >From apathy to dependence; 8. >From dependence back into bondage'

October 22, 2008 at 12:02 pm

Tom

You said it all. When Obama, Reid, and Pelosi get done, I will be able to quit my high stress, technology job and job as a cart-boy. The Feds will take care of all my family's needs. It will be nice to have the time to drink beer, watch sports, and not worry about money.

October 22, 2008 at 12:05 pm

Dennis

One of the problems is that we have rewarded mediocrity and low achievement for too many years. Too many people have come to realize that the government will take care of them and they shouldn't stress. There is always a bleeding heart to fill their needs. We have become a cradle to the grave society where gov't is supposed to take care of us. The politicians play on this perception by offering more and more social programs and both the democrats and republicans are guilty. Afterall, it gets votes. Ecomom's concern about a depression is a real one, my fear is that people will look to the government instead of themselves.

October 22, 2008 at 12:13 pm

peggy

I agree also, the middle class has always carried the burden, and with the Big O's plan we will get hit again, and again, and again. We are going to wake up one day and be dominated by a Third World Country, as Krusheff said, I do not have to destroy you, you will destroy your self from within, I am scared to death of a possible President with NO EXPERIENCE, for all our sake, let us not elect a man, just because he is cool, black/white (Obama is by-racial) folks, as I am a Native American. Vote with some common sense, not one of the above.

October 22, 2008 at 12:27 pm

Gail Mewes in San Diego

I agree. We are headed down a slippery slope to disaster. The perfect irony in all this is that many of the very people who will be hit the hardest by the increased taxes and tax add-ons are the clueless Hollywood types and the nutty professors like Bill Ayers who has spent decades feasting off the stupidity of the wealthy brainwashed bleeding heart liberals. It is hard to believe that the democrats still think the answer to social change is simply to throw money at it, especially after all the failed programs that have resulted from doing just that. A good example is the disastrous Cabrini-Green housing project in Chicago that wasted billions of tax dollars and resulted in nothing more than a huge increase in drug-related gang wars. Will they ever learn? I say let the elitist liberals have their way this time. They will be the first to fall.

October 22, 2008 at 1:21 pm

bill

The "Feds" like to brag about our voluntary tax system. BULL! There is nothing voluntary about the tax system when the "feds" take what they want before you get what's left. I'm and auditor for a state revenue department and I see peoples tax returns, bith business and individual and business taxes and income taxes, every day. I assure you people take every avenue , legal and illegal to avoid paying taxes. For me the solution is simple, I'm taking early retirement, they may take a little out of my retirement check but believe me my new "business" will lose so much money I will get it make. Like many other Americans I will be joining the enormus underground economy! So. GO ahead Obama, give 95% of people a reduction in their payroll( say social security) tax. Go ahead John, vote for another bailout. Neither of you will be using my money because I refuse to give you any more!

October 22, 2008 at 1:56 pm

charles

Obama's tax plan will destroy the Social Security system. Obama says his income tax plan will lower taxes for 95% of Americans. There is just one problem with this, 40% of Americans already pay no income tax. Obama's response to this is that these people pay Social Security tax. Well, that's not income tax, but a contribution to their retirement plan. So if he wins and implements his tax plan, for the first time in the history of Social Security, 40% of the people who will get retirement benefits will have paid nothing for them. Social Security will then loose all pretext of being a retirement plan, and will become a national welfare program. This will cause Social Security to lose public support in a massive way. Leave Social Security contributions out of income tax plans. If you take some peoples income taxes to pay others Social Security taxes, Social Security will be destroyed forever. http://strategicthought-charles77.blogspot.com/2008/10/obamas-tax-plan-will-destroy-social.html

October 22, 2008 at 2:11 pm

Carolyn Williams

We totally agree and feel we are definitely in the "earners" category. Thanks for giving directions to 4 Lost women in New York. We made it to the Lincoln Tunnel without difficulty and back to Oklahoma. Thanks for taking the time to show us the way.

October 22, 2008 at 2:19 pm

Karen L Duke

Mr. Sullivan: this morning your program was talking about restaurants, and the effect of the economy on them. On Sunday we went to have lunch at one of our favorite cafes in Sonoma County. There were five of us having lunch and the owner/chef came by our table and we starting talking to him about his business and my mother mention watch who you vote for, that youngman running for Pres. is not looking out for him. The owner has 25 employees. Not only does he have the cafe but also does cateering off site and cooking classes. If Obama wins it will force him to close his cafe, there is No Way he could meet the mandates that will be forced upon him---HEALTHCARE-HIGHER TAXES ECT. That would mean 25 people will loose their job-the landloard will be out the rent- the city,county, state,and feds will not receive tax revenue from the business or the employees. His suppliers will not receive food and beverage orders-they will lay off people and the beat goes on and on and on. He will close his business and move to Costa Rica and beable to do what he loves COOK and enjoy life and not have a government in his pocket!!!!!! And we will be out of a wonderful eating establishment. All that is being spread is !!!!!!!!!!!.

October 22, 2008 at 2:21 pm

bill

Thank God the Second Amendment has survived to this point. I at least still have the right to bear arms and I may need them to defend myself from what claims to be the "government of the people".

October 22, 2008 at 2:24 pm

Working too hard in California

I agree with Brian. I don't think Obama's tax plan is sound, fair or viable. But, the voting population can't seem to hear that. The Obama supporters that surround me are happy to get someone the opposite of George W. Bush. (I neither voted for nor ever liked George W. Bush either. But I am not going to "cut my nose off to spite my face.") Except for the spending, Obama is pretty much the opposite of Bush. There are those that surround me that incorrectly believe they are going to get a tax break with Obama. Obama is a good salesperson. I also know an individual that believes the government should take care of her and her family. Her mom never saved money and is now retired and living in a government subsidized apartment. The daughter has never wanted to work too hard and complains when she has to work overtime. The daughter (in her fifties) is up to her eyeballs in credit card debt with no savings. (She finally started a small 401k because I talked her into it.) Her family believes that the govermnent should take care of them. They are American citizens from the Mayflower. It is owed to them. They feel Obama will give them what is rightfully theirs. Then, there are those that want to vote for McCain, but he is spending like a Democrat as well. So I know someone that will vote Libertarian instead. Brian, the deck is stacked against us.

October 22, 2008 at 2:34 pm

David

Fantastic article. This is exactly what I have been arguing. This phenomenon with taxes and wage earners squeezes the middle class. I hate to break it all you class envy types, or "I'm for the middle class types," but when you hurt the upper income earners, you squeeaze the middle class. Eventually, you're left with a top 2% aristocrat class and everybody else, dumb and smart, lazy and hard-working, receiving an equal allotment of dirt.

October 22, 2008 at 2:56 pm

Anne L

ERIC W - you are my HERO! the way I figure it we are at stage 7 - maybe time to figure out how I can get dual citizenship in Ireland. I can't believe how the people of this country cannot see what is happening - WORK for what you get. You are entitled to NOTHING you don't earn. Where did this go?

October 22, 2008 at 3:49 pm

Can't Stand It

I already decided, and planned all this year, a 1/4 slow down in my production and income in case an Obama regime wins the election. If he is in office come January, I am cutting back to the no tax cut-off. See most people can't because of children or car payments. But if everyone cuts back at least 10%, the Dem regime won't have what they think they are going to have and I hope, fail. I am not contributing my sweat to thier regime's success. Consider me in "the oppostion".

October 22, 2008 at 5:41 pm

Bob The Great

Much as we would like to believe what Eric W. said above, it is fiction. http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp

October 22, 2008 at 6:50 pm

Bob The Great

Better we should spend our time studying the reasoning and thinking of this contemporary professor: http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/wew/articles/08/Destroying%20Liberty.htm http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/wew/articles/08/LessonsFromTheBailout.htm http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/wew/articles/08/PoliticalMonopolyPower.htm

October 22, 2008 at 7:01 pm

Joe the Lib

Good day all, Ok, here for the flaming. I was a welfare child. Single mother raised 3 of us. Used welfare to make ends meet. Student loan to get a degree. Section 8 for housing support. She's a RAGING liberal. All three of us have jobs, families and homes. All are productive, tax paying citizens. See, sometimes, the idea of helping those that cannot help themselves has merit. Sometimes it does work. Sometimes it doesn't. It's because everything involves people and some people really don't know how to play nice with others. Some rich are lazy (I loathe Paris Hilton), some poor are hard working. Some people are born with talent (I REALLY loathe Alex Rodriguez) while others just have to do the best with what they have. It's really not like, if you're not rich, you only have yourself to blame. By the way, we have had both parties in control of the White House and Congress in the past 40 years. We're neither the conservative nor liberal disaster that both sides say we will become if the other gets a turn at the wheel. Be well and stay safe all. Joe

October 22, 2008 at 7:44 pm

Bill _in_NYC

I hope that I am not the only one who thinks this, but this is not just a bad economic plan, this plan is immoral as well. If people want to give their money to help those in need, that is fantastic. If they do not, then that is their choice as well. It is completely immoral for government to forcefully extort money from a person who earned it and give it to someone who did not. I believe that people should be self reliant. Sometimes we all need a break or a helping hand. But that is what charities, foundations and religious organizations are for. VOLUTARY GIVING!! Strong arm extortion is immoral, even when performed by the gov't in the name of "fairness".

October 22, 2008 at 11:37 pm

Rod Tataryn

Once again Brian - you're dead on target. This experiment has been run over and over throughout history. Increase taxes and discourage production. Read the comments. Nothing kills motivation like wealth redistribution. That's why Hauser's Law is an established fact. The government should have one goal - increase the GDP. Period. Then we'd all win. It's really not that difficult.

October 22, 2008 at 11:45 pm

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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