The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • October 8, 2008 09:07 PM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    Let's Hope California Isn't The Model This Time

    The saying goes, "as goes California so goes the nation."    Let's hope that's not true this time.

    The Wall Street Journal has an excellent article today (subscription required) about the state of California and its troubles.

    These passages stick out from the story:

    John Luc has seen how housing problems bleed into the broader economy. Mr. Luc is the 36-year-old manager of Homestore Furniture in Ontario, a middle-class community 40 miles east of Los Angeles and one of the centers of the housing bust. Since last year, retail sales have fallen, while unemployment and office vacancies have soared. Eighteen months ago, he watched a nearby Levitz furniture store close down in a bankruptcy sale. Since then, he said, the few buyers who've visited his store ask for discounts. "Everybody negotiates," he says.

    The other day, Mr. Luc was presiding over the store's going-out-of-business sale. Although the father of two young children expects to get a job at another Homestore outlet, he and his wife have checked their spending. He says he saves $50 or more each week by packing a lunch each day, and he makes coffee at home instead of stopping at Starbucks during his long commute. "I haven't gone into a steakhouse like a Black Angus for dinner in six to eight months," he says.

    Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, so as people like Mr. Luc cut back, job losses and other economic woes follow. In the third quarter of 2007, California's taxable sales declined 1.82% from the year-earlier period, the first annual decline since 2002. Taxable sales have fallen every quarter since. Now in addition to construction workers and mortgage brokers, people like retail clerks, accountants and information-technology consultants are losing their jobs.

    If the old adage sticks, then this just may well turn out to be a road map for what the country can expect.   Let's hope not.

    Still, it provides a basis for my recent argument about the need for tax cuts.   And this is not just about "the rich."   Consumer spending trickles down from all levels.  The more money Americans have in their pockets, the more they spend.  That helps everyone along the chain.   Sending more money to the government would not have the same positive impact on the economy, unless the Feds convince us they will go out and buy furniture for all the homes they want to buy.

    This California tale is a personal story for me as well.    While our Fox Business continuing series "My Hometown" will take me to where my folks now live in Winchester, Virginia, I spent my first 15 years in California.    Born in L.A. and the moving to San Diego county at age 9, I understand what families there are going through.   My parents suffered through tough times in the mid-80s recession, ultimately prompting a move back east to where my father spent his childhood.   It was a tough time for the Sullivans, but it's given me some insight into how the economy may play out and the real impact it has on people.

    The Federal government and Presidential candidates need to take a good, hard look at California.   Unless they want the rest of the country to catch this germ, we need to talk more about tax cuts and getting money back in people's pockets.

Matt Lowe

QUOTE: . . . One reason I have little sympathy for Mr. Luc and great anger about the trillion dollar bail-out (the final cost will be much greater–reference Resolution Trust ten times original promised cost or today’s 40 billion to follow the previous 85 billion bail-out of two weeks ago) was that some of us have not been to a steakhouse for more than 10 years while we were managing to pay off our mortgages. . . Yep, tell me about it. As a cashier at a local comic book store, and formerly at Borders and Target, I've gone to steakhouses three times in my life so far; Once 25 years ago as a young kid, paid for by my parents. And twice at the Outback Steakhouse, paid for by myself. The money I save from not dining out much and from not owning a car goes to pay for DSL. Sometimes it seems like Journalists are oblivious to how some of us simple folk have quietly spent our entire lives in conditions which they consider to be deprievement.

October 10, 2008 at 3:58 am

Scott

I am outraged by the shameful impertinence of Schwarzenegger and his state to come forward expecting my tax dollars to pay for the consequences of their extravagance. They are a textbook case in the tragic consequences of leftism and they should wither on the vine so they may be a shining example of what the Democrats have in store for the entire country when they control all 3 branches of government. The Marxists of this state, for all of their crying about the "environment" have made fortunes as Hollywood dumps their toxic waste into our culture. The ramifications of their toxic waste are far more palpable, more measurable than the dubious claims of "An Inconvenient Truth. The inconvenient truth is that for decades this state has given the proverbial bird to the vast majority of Americans, our values and our faith. They have wasted their money on left winged programs encouraging illegal immigration. Still lingering in my mind are the recent images, tens of thousands of militants at "gay pride" parades marching through the streets of San Francisco dressed up as our Savior Jesus Christ as they shockingly mocked everything that is sacred to "fly over country". Now you dare ask me for my money? I thought "gay marriage" was supposed to save California from destitution? Listening to the glowing reports by ABC, NBC & CBS led me to believe that this celebration of sodomy was going to single handedly balance California’s budget, no? Is California "too big to fail?" In my estimation, this albatross of a state is too odious NOT to fail. There is plenty of wealth there already. If they want a bailout, they need to go to the Hollywood elitists and make them practice what they have preached. The fortunes of Steven Spielberg, Rob Reiner and David Geffen alone can balance California’s budget. It’s time for California to "take" the "excess profits" from their own citizens. What about the "fairness" doctrine leftists have been ramming down our throats this election season? Let’s see how eager Spielberg and Reiner are to be plundered to support the causes to which they are owing. That’s the beauty of federalism. There is healthy competition between the states; so if a state governs poorly, there are 49 others from which to choose. I know there are so very good people living there and those good people can vote with their feet – and they will. By the disgraceful way this state is run, they may deserve to be the first state to be forced OUT the union, "forced secession" if you will. Nobody will be stuck there if they go bust. The only thing that may be stuck there with a little luck is Hollywood and that my fellow Americans would be a good thing. For Hollywood to be plundered by the state treasury into extinction would be the best thing that happened to this country in the past 100 years. You want to really spark some outrage the likes of which we have not seen since 1861 – go ahead – make our day; force decent Americans to bailout Sodom. (from my column at www.TableofWisdom.com )

October 9, 2008 at 12:22 pm

ridewind

Well said s.r.b. !! Fundamentally wrong so far is this formula 'global trade = outsourcing'. Due to the 80's recession, companies were pounded by numbers and cut costs by shifting out manufacturing bases without thinking. It went so far to almost take out the manufacturing base of America. Government seems to enjoy that too, trumpeting the numbers. These purely tactical moves has altered significantly the America growth strategy from a producer/consumer to an consumer-only society. So one lever is lost forever and leave the government little choice but to only increase easy money.

October 9, 2008 at 12:18 pm

s.r. b.

We need to look past the current crisis and see the whole picture here. All of this time, energy, and money we are trying to throw at this problem to jumpstart the same old system that got us here in the first place: an economy based upon credit and borrowing. That is the governments main objective right now, to get businesses and consumers borrowing again- So they can continue to live in their fantasy world where they all have the "RIGHT" to own a 3,000 sq ft house, a shiny new car, and get $4 coffee every morning, regardless of whether they actually earned it or not. This whole thing makes a joke of those of us who have lived within our means. And we have the "RIGHT" to be angry! Doesn't anyone realize that we cannot keep this up indefinitely? Consumers are tapped out. The reason they aren't buying houses, new cars, and the latest chinese gadgets is because they already have all of that stuff and the huge loans and credit card balances to go with it. There comes a time when it just won't work anymore, people will have to live within their means. This is artificial wealth we are creating, it is not real! No goods were produced, no services performed to obtain that wealth. It was created out of thin air! What happens if all of the bailout money and government spending doesn't work and the economy crashes anyway? Does anyone anywhere have a plan for that scenario? Where does the money come from to pick up the pieces and start over? Certainly not from the taxpayers who will have lost their jobs by that point on top of being burdened down by the bailout debt. Where does the money come from to run our state and local governments, our schools?, our police? after they've gone broke? Where does that money come from to rebuild our economy after the dollar is worthless in the eyes of the world? STOP AND THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES! We need to stop all of these bailouts right now. McCain and Obama both promise us more of the same, I see no difference between them. We need real solutions to the bigger problems, instead of expensive attempts to recreate the same old problems. When was the last time you saw anything with the "made in the USA" label? Think about it.... Where will we be in ten years???

October 9, 2008 at 10:53 am

Dan

Sorry Mr. Sullivan but the "germ" has already spread but unless the inverstors quit proping up the energy prices, plus bad money in the finance system, oh well. Everything else has rose in price and other factors have tanked what do people want us the avarage folks to do? Keep spending, sorry basic choices need to be made unless those in higher echelon of business get their $&!t straight.

October 9, 2008 at 8:54 am

G. Beabout

California seemed like a place to be for me many years ago. However, having found a wife and home in Oklahoma has been the best move I ever made. I do visit California on occassion and enjoy the beach, mountains, and desert. Why do states like California seem to spend their way into trouble so quickly. Deficit spending be it federal or state and for that matter local government is a sure way to destroy quality of life for everyone. Perhaps if government would live within its means like have to it would be a great place to live. just saying...

October 9, 2008 at 8:53 am

John

Giving the government money is never good! And these days THEY seem to just decide how much they want and just take it from us!

October 9, 2008 at 7:51 am

Joshua VanTilborg

I'm a Realtor here in Orange County, CA. My business just 3 years ago was a meager amount of purchase loans, and refinancing. Now staggering numberes of loan modifications, and short sales. I extremely pleased to be one of very few that are still in business, but the amount of people in trouble saddens me. I've been day trading for the last year as mortgage companies were dying out. Now investor lack of confidence is killing that for me. What's next for me bootlegging?

October 9, 2008 at 5:29 am

Kris

Very interesting. I moved from Midwest to CA in the 90's went thru the dot com bubble. Lost lots of money financed via home equity. Though I am a consultant, the consultant rates never increased and I ended up spending almost half my income to service my mortgage. A couple of years back I sold my home in CA, and moved to Florida. I still dont have my own business even though I tried hard. Now I have moved back into the country I came from. A Loser? Nope. Even with a high salary, I never thought I could afford a home, medical care or retirement. I still owe a lot of taxes (income and property) and have run up my credit cards. Now I work six months a year, and relax the rest of the time. I am forced to live within my means. I dont use the car or gas that much, try not to buy anything on credit. More than fixing my personal finances, fixing my outlook to life is a challenge. I keep telling myself that the dual degrees I have is not a waste. Midlife crisis just zoomed past. We are in national depression!

October 9, 2008 at 2:29 am

Timmy C

If people in the main street are worrying about losing their jobs or their homes. It is less likely that they are willing to spend their money. This will cause the consumption down and it will slow down the economy. Tax is only one factor. But it is not the solution to the whole problem. In fact the Reagan era tax cuts had proved that tax cuts do not necessary translate into higher tax revenue. It will be a mistake to think supply side economics is a cure all to what we are facing today. What you need is a business friendly environment so that it can create more jobs. When you have the tax system is so complex that it requires a rocket scientist to figure out, businesses are less likely to flourish. Also the nation cannot remain competitive unless you create a background that is favorable to new industries and innovations. Otherwise you will be giving up the strength of the US economy which used to be an edge over the rest of the world. (BTW I tried to find Brian's blog thru the foxbusiness webpage and i couldn't find it. I had to google it to find the blog. guess the foxbusiness webpage is not as user friendly as I would like to be.)

October 9, 2008 at 2:18 am

Gary Driscoll

Your previous argument was mostly for tax cuts for businesses, not individuals. I think it is a great idea not to send the money through Washington. However, you need to cut federal spending by more than the tax cuts so you don't end up losing all your future advantage from the cuts to increased spending on interest. One reason I have little sympathy for Mr. Luc and great anger about the trillion dollar bail-out (the final cost will be much greater--reference Resolution Trust ten times original promised cost or today's 40 billion to follow the previous 85 billion bail-out of two weeks ago) was that some of us have not been to a steakhouse for more than 10 years while we were managing to pay off our mortgages. Now we get stuck for the bill for $80,000 (two taxpayers here) for people that have been frequenting Starbucks for $4 coffee and steakhouses for dinners.

October 8, 2008 at 11:00 pm

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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