Jobs Number Signals Recession Print May Be Close

The loss of 159,000 jobs in September was worse than the consensus.     With other numbers coming in weak lately, unless we have a strong trade figure its going to be very hard to have a positive GDP figure for the 3rd quarter.

Watch trade.  If that slows, its likely we could have a negative GDP number.

Below is the analysis from Fox Business Senior Economist Mark Lieberman:

The month-month decrease in payroll jobs for September was the ninth drop in a row.   That's the first time jobs have fallen for nine straight months since 2001-02. Payroll employment dropped for 15 straight months from March 2001 through May 2002. The month-month decline was the steepest since the economy lost 212,000 jobs in March 2003.

The civilian employment rate - measuring the number of people with jobs as a percentage of the working age population - fell to 62.0%, the lowest level since September 2003.  This means that 38% of all people over the age of 16 and over are not working.   Remember the unemployment rate reflects only people who want to work.

Year to date, the economy has lost 760,000 jobs, an average of 84,000 jobs per month compared with growth of 91,000 jobs per month in 2007.

The unemployment rate remained to its highest level since September 2003.   That's the steepest year-over-year increase in the unemployment rate since May 2002.

Pivate sector payrolls fell 168,000 in August; the tenth consecutive monthly decline, sharply higher than the average monthly decline of 108,000 jobs so far this year. Private sector payrolls fell for 17 straight months from January 2001 through May 2002. Average weekly earnings – a function of average weekly hours and average hourly earnings -- fell 0.1% in September, the first month-month decline since January.