The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • October 2, 2008 05:19 PM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    The Numbers Are In (Shadow Bailout redux)

    I wrote a few days about about what I called the "shadow bailout."   It's about how while DC talks, the Fed is acting by becoming the lender of last resort in a big way.

    Well, the weekly data released today from the Fed confirms that report.    And the numbers are staggering.

    Here are the official Fed numbers:

    • Discount window lending to banks (direct from Fed) = $49.5 BLN (up 26% from last week)
    • Primary dealer credit facility lending to brokers = $146.6 BLN (up 39% from last week)
    • Asset-backed commercial paper money market fund facility = $152.1 BLN (up 109%)

    This means that last week the Fed lent about $350 billion dollars to banks and brokers, and to help shore up money market funds.

    Here are two remarkable charts:

    Generally there is little week-to-week change in this figure.   The fact that we are seeing Fed lending of this size clearly indicates what we have been discussing for the past two weeks: that credit in the private sector has dried up signficantly and the U.S. government is the primary place to get money at the highest level.

    Remember this is in addition to what the government is proposing in the financial rescue package.  We are now easily looking at trillions of dollars in lending to the financial sector.   Given that the discount window has already been open and tapped much this year we are likely already there.

    Reminder: The montly jobs data is out tomorrow at 8:30am ET.  That and the fact that the House is expected to vote on the bill during market hours should ensure that trading tomorrow is going to be one of the most memorable in recent history.

Jim Hunter

You gotta love Pork when you run out of Steak and Potatos.

October 2, 2008 at 5:41 pm

Rachelle

The idiots in Washington keep throwing money at a fire. Money is paper and they are only adding fuel. We can crash and burn now and possibly survive or we can keep adding fuel and no one will. We have got to make our Government start listening to us again. We should not be hijacked by a renegade leadership. Democrats and republicans alike.

October 2, 2008 at 5:58 pm

DT

Thought you’d find this article interesting Check out this New York Times article. Historically speaking it’s absolutely stunning. (The story was published September 30th 1999 – 9 years ago to yesterday.) I highlighted the more incredible text… This predates Bush and 9/11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending By STEVEN A. HOLMES Published: September 30, 1999 In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders. The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring. Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits. In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates -- anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans. ''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.'' Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market. In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's. ''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.'' Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped. Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings. Fannie Mae officials stress that the new mortgages will be extended to all potential borrowers who can qualify for a mortgage. But they add that the move is intended in part to increase the number of minority and low income home owners who tend to have worse credit ratings than non-Hispanic whites. Home ownership has, in fact, exploded among minorities during the economic boom of the 1990's. The number of mortgages extended to Hispanic applicants jumped by 87.2 per cent from 1993 to 1998, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. During that same period the number of African Americans who got mortgages to buy a home increased by 71.9 per cent and the number of Asian Americans by 46.3 per cent. In contrast, the number of non-Hispanic whites who received loans for homes increased by 31.2 per cent. Despite these gains, home ownership rates for minorities continue to lag behind non-Hispanic whites, in part because blacks and Hispanics in particular tend to have on average worse credit ratings. In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups. The change in policy also comes at the same time that HUD is investigating allegations of racial discrimination in the automated underwriting systems used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the credit-worthiness of credit applicants.

October 2, 2008 at 8:45 pm

eddie

What time is the vote for the new bailout tomorrow?

October 2, 2008 at 11:53 pm

Jeremy

If $350 Billion form the government does not appear to be working....as all the news agencies are apparently reporting or at least not reporting. Why do they (government and their supposed experts) think that $700 Billion will work?

October 3, 2008 at 7:57 am

Grant

The vote will most likely take place when the least amount of people are paying attention. (i.e. prime time) but possibly later depending mostly on whether or not the oink flys with everyone. The only thing agreed upon so far is that the bill will not even come to the floor unless they are certain it will pass.

October 3, 2008 at 8:13 am

Grant

Prime time for Wall Street is 8:30 to 4:30 EST.

October 3, 2008 at 8:14 am

j t (r-co)

here's an idea america. not only should we fire our congress members that vote yes, but lets take a stand. if they do pass this bill, i say we take all of our money out of whatever banks they are bailing out and put our money in the other banks and credit unions. these banks deserve to go out of business for their poor decisions and greediness. if the government wont do it, i say we as americans take a stand and stop these banks from ruining more lives and costing us more money.

October 3, 2008 at 11:55 am

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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