The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • September 29, 2008 06:26 PM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    More Takeaways from Today in Washington & Wall Street

    Last night on FBN and again this morning I reiterated what I was hearing on the Hill; that this bill had a good chance of not passing.   Few others were discussing the possibility of failure because of the continued optimism of Democratic leaders.   But working the Congressional halls Sunday it was clear there was much opposition.   Those sources turned out to be correct.   All in all, it was a dramatic day as "bailout bill" fails and stocks sink.   Dow posting its biggest ever point loss (though not percentage drop, that was the 22% haircut in 1987).

    Looking back does us no good.   Let's look ahead.   A few quick takeaways from Washington and Wall Street:

    1. The "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008" is likely dead.   The failure to pass today cut it off at the knees.   If there is going to be another rescue package it will have to be an entirely new bill.   Basically, we start again.  As a source on the Hill told me, "it's going to be another long weekend" coming up.    Tomorrow and Wednesday are Jewish holidays and Congress is not in session.   The next formal move will be Thursday.

    2. There is likely to be a new, different bill forthcoming with different provisions and language, though similar goals.   There is too much riding on this politically now.  The theoretical "horse is out of the barn."   Two Congressional sources told me today they expect another package to be put together.

    3. Key concerns in the failed bill were not just ideological.   There were some last-minute changes to bankruptcy law provisions that angered a few Democrats.   Despite trying to put forth a united front, 95 Democrats voted against the bill.

    4. Politicians up for tough re-election races went with the populist sentiment.   Congressional Quarterly notes that of the races deemed "competitive," 85% of the incumbents voted against the bill.

    5. Congressional sources tell me Nancy Pelosi's pre-vote speech attacking the President's policies and a new ad by left-leaning group MoveOn.org blaming McCain set off many Republicans who may have been on the fence and they voted against the bill in protest.

    6. The dollar continues to strengthen, posting its biggest gain in 15 years.   As tough as it may be in the U.S., most on Wall Street agree that things are much worse in Europe.   Five European banks have failed in past few days and the fear is that the European Central Bank does not have the flexibility of our Federal Reserve to deal with the problem.    America has problems, but its believed Europe's are more severe.   The downside is that this issue is growing globally.   The dollar's gain is also negative for one of the few sectors of the American economy that has been performing, the exporters.   More expensive dollars make our goods less competitive around the world.

    7. The dollar's gain and fears of a global slowdown hurt oil and commodities today, minus the haven of gold.   It's one of the few upsides of today's market reaction.  Lower oil and commodity prices mean you will pay less for a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk.

    8. For stock investors and mutual fund owners it was a rough day.   It's been a rough year.   Confidence in the stock market is low.   But thankfully the always rational David Winters reminds us that often the best long-term opportunities appear in the worst of times.

    9. Next big story is likely to be pension fund problems.  Many pension plans have faced funding issues in the past few years.   This problem may reappear because of negative real returns on treasuries and stocks taking a hit this year.  Watch pension funds closely.

Steve Rosenthal

Fair and Balanced: So 95 Drmocrats voted against the bill and NO MENTION OF REPUBLICANS THAT VOTED AGAINST THE BILL. Perhaps 135!!!!

September 29, 2008 at 7:32 pm

Linda Matthews

The Americans have had enough today of Washington. Everyone who is up for reelection will not be reelected by the American people. Since they think it is ok for us to lose money in the stock market while they pussy foot around. They we think it is ok they don't have a job at all. See how they like it.

September 29, 2008 at 7:34 pm

Richard Bentley

This type of cyclic boom and bust is normal in a free market environment. Most of the time is is catalyzed by people who choose to take or market high-risk situations. But sometimes new markets open up in other areas and money moves from one to the other. It would be good to see a basic restructuring of capitalism that either minimizes or eliminates speculation entirely, which would remove the first scenario. Having only the second one to deal with would give economies enough time to anticipate and adjust.

September 29, 2008 at 7:35 pm

Steve Rosenthal

To be fair it was 133 Republicans that voted against the bill.

September 29, 2008 at 7:36 pm

Steve Rosenthal

More than two-thirds of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats opposed the bill.

September 29, 2008 at 7:38 pm

JP

Its time for a 101 Economics for all those people who love the fact that Congress rejected the bail-out: 1. Credit Instititions (Banks) nationwide will reach a screaching halt.

September 29, 2008 at 7:39 pm

Daniel

One thing I think you fail to note is the reality of the web. People are now more involved than ever before. And if this horse is out of the barn for Congress, it's out of the barn for the public too. The bill today lost by only 12 votes (if they switched sides) which is close. But another bill that just does the same old thing with new words is not going to satisfy the public watching this. The House cannot continue to paper over the real objections that the public has to this bill. Issue of this magnitude need extensive public discussion in a democracy. And that is not happening. If any bill passes, there are many incumbents, even is safe districts, that are dead ducks. More than the fact that this is a fat cat bailout, the public is pissed at it being shoved down it's throat.

September 29, 2008 at 7:47 pm

Web Smith

A temporary solution really is very simple and it is the way that our Congress members, Senators, and President should be thinking. Give the money to American citizens. They will deposit the money into banks. They will catch their mortgages up to date. Force the banks to renegotiate loans to ones that are affordable. American citizens will buy more things. Banks will be forced to play nice if they want money from customers. The economy will be stimulated. The founding fathers trusted Americans and they built this into the greatest country in the world. It's time for this batch of public servants to also trust Americans. http://ewebsmith.com/bus/taxpayers.html

September 29, 2008 at 7:48 pm

theword

People are either for the bail-out or against it. Here is 101 Economics in nutshell so everyone knows what to expect: No Bail-out: 1. Financial crisis to spread making market place non-liquid: a) Loss of jobs b) No credit for personal or corporate needs c) People to cash out of banks d) Thousands of companies to go bust e) 35 -50% Banks to close f) Loss of trust in fiancial system g) price of Gold to reach $1000 - $1200/ounce h) Price of barrel -oil $65 -$75 i) 10 to 15 years to recover j) Strong dollar k) Deflation l) Low interest for few survivors. 2. With bail-out a) Softened scenario 1. Maybe recovery 5-8 years. b) Socialization of American economy c) More companies run by the Government. d) Transfer of wealth and control of production/services to the Government. e) Rampant inflation f) Weak dollar g) High interest rates 3. Post Crisis Plan: a) Govt steps in after Financial implosion (not before) b) Less monies needed to rebuild. c) Value of what is left is a fraction of original values. d) Survival of the fitest. e) New Fiscal policy to promote Sector incentives f) Bargain price purchase of core US production companies by foreign capital. g) No inflation h) Low interest rates. i) 30% Unemployment j) Rise in criminal behaviour

September 29, 2008 at 8:14 pm

chuck stillabower

loved Pinkerton's tale of Andrew Jackson. dollars up, oils down. Where I shop everything is made in China. I worked for Bankrupt Bethlehem Steel, no bailout there. We now buy our armarplating from Algoma Steel, Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. owned by a billionaire from India. Where Andrew

September 29, 2008 at 8:21 pm

elliot colton

It woould be nice to think that there was a method to their madness, but the politicians ( I hesitate to call them Congressmen, it sounds too distinguished), doing what they are doing, probably don't have a clue what might transpire in the days to come. This effects all of us, and like children, they accuse eachother over such things aa "speeches" while we stand to suffer the most. Jerks, all of them.

September 29, 2008 at 8:31 pm

AspenFreePress

McCain could have helped sink this rancid bailout proposal and been a hero to a majority of American voters. Instead he rolled over for the Bush Administration, a marionette instead of a maverick. Sterling Greenwood Aspen Free Press

September 29, 2008 at 10:22 pm

Pam

Those in the house who voted against the bailout bill to please a constituency that does not begin to understand the dire hardships they will face (meaning: our legislators care more about being re-elected than doing what is right for those to whom they have a responsibility), should be impeached immediately for their gross negligence. ... to our so called "leaders": your speeches are worthless, your time is short, negotiations for earmarks or whatever else are a reckless waste of money we do not have. Do your job properly and do it swiftly, before you turn what is left (not much) into nothing!

September 29, 2008 at 10:37 pm

B Scott

Yup, another long weekend in store for the politicians,I am assuming that these meetings go on behind closed doors.Has anyone ever asked what they do in there all weekend,is their a swimming pool,indoor theater or beds in there? Why can they not televise the meetings..I,ll bet if they televised it, and sold commercial ads, like the super bowl, they could make the 700 billion in revenues.Being a comedy it could be rated "family" for max audience coverage.

September 29, 2008 at 10:39 pm

Writing Frontier

Caught your mention about how things could get much worse in Europe than in the U.S. These days,there's not a whole of difference between the two. For those interested, see Writing Frontier's piece "The Europeanization of America" at http://writingfrontier.com/2008/07/27/the-europeanization-of-america/

September 29, 2008 at 10:45 pm

Democrats 08

The financial disaster that is the US Economy was caused by Bush and the Republicans shipping jobs over seas, burning trillions of tax dollars on Iraq, doing nothing to create new jobs, deregulation, failing to invest in American businesses and giving humongous tax give aways to the Republican wealthy. The mortgage crisis was a byproduct of it all. Banks like all businesses became desperate and did anything to sell their product and steal their competition's customers, that's what businesses do when the economy dies, like it is still, right now. Eight long years of Republican corruption, greed and fiscal irresponsibility is what got us here! Republicans love to blame everyone and everything but themselves for their own sick and destructive behaviors and mistakes. The solution is simple people, vote every single, last one of them OUT of office this November.

September 30, 2008 at 3:26 am

jeff saturday

If there is no rescue bill there is no money for student loans = college tuition comes down home loans = housing becomes affordable auto loans = less people upside down on cars , more work for mechanics , more parts business business loans = strong survive and hire more people credit cards = big drop in bankruptcy , much less rope for people to financially hang themselves with . People would have to live on less than they make , congress should try it.

September 30, 2008 at 10:50 am

John

The financial disaster that is happening today was caused by Obama and the Democrats by shipping jobs over seas, with NAFTA ( Clinton Policy) and waisting trillions of tax dollars on failed policies of Clinton, doing nothing to create new jobs, over regulation, failing to trust in American businesses and trying to re-distribute wealth to people who refuse to work and sit on their duffs. The mortgage crisis is a direct byproduct of all Clinton's socialist policies. Banks like all businesses were forced by Obama and the Clinton's social policies of desperation to put people in houses who DO NOT DESERVE to have a house because they refuse to work, Forty long years of Deomcratic corruption, greed and fiscal irresponsibility is what got us here! Democrats love to blame everyone and everything and lie at every turn, they refuse to take any responsibility for their own sick and destructive behaviors and mistakes. The solution is simple people, vote every single, last democrate out of office in November!!

September 30, 2008 at 11:01 am

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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