The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • August 6, 2008 11:23 AM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    The Baffling Airline Business: Both Sides to Blame?

    There is no industry as difficult to understand or as confusing to cover as the airlines.   It should be straightforward.   Millions of Americans want to travel.  Airlines want to take them there.  Demand.   Supply.  Everyone wins.

    Sadly, that's not the case.    In the airline business, both the companies and the consumers are losing.      Airlines are losing billions of dollars a year and at war with their pilots and crews.  Passengers are losing patience, inching toward total revolution, frustrated by long delays, canceled flights and surly crews.   Air travel is an industry rife with bankruptcies, unhappy customers, unhappy employees and the near total destruction of investor capital.   How can it be that both sides of the business (the demand and the supply) are having such problems?

    Blaming the Airlines

    For all the mystery we add, at the end of the day business is really quite simple.    Analyze costs, find price point, offer product, have customer pay for product above your costs, enjoy the profit.    Rinse, lather, repeat.   Airlines  do not seem to understand this.  Or don't need to.  Nearly every airline but Southwest (LUV) flies most of their customers around the country at a loss.   Finding out if an airline is losing money on you is an easy game.  Find an airlines "RPM" (revenue per passenger mile - most are around 11-cents/mile), track the flight miles in the air, consider what you paid for the ticket and divide that by the revpam x miles flown.   Its easy to figure out exactly what point in the flight you begin flying for free.

    For years most airlines have been unable or unwilling to run profitably.  They have allowed costs to spiral higher by keeping too many planes in the air while at the same time reinforcing bad consumer behavior with unsustainably low prices.   How many industries consistently sell their primary product below cost?  How many do so an survive, anyway.   Why is Southwest the only airline that seems to understand the balance sheet?

    The one smart thing airlines have done is creating regional semi-monopolies.   Their "hub & spoke" system is really code for "we own this city."   Northwest has it in Detroit and Minneapolis.  Continental in Newark and Houston.   American in Dallas, and so forth.   This gives them much political leverage, which in turn can be cashed in for generous tax breaks and government sponsored benefits.  And its really because of this that they are allowed to continue to operate is a poor manner.   Airlines need to realize that their passengers don't care about hubs or spokes, and just want a reasonably enjoyable - or at least humane - experience.

    Solution: Improving the flying experience will help the balance sheet. Then they will be able pass through their higher costs help get their balance sheets back in order.   We are willing to pay more if we get more.   American consumers do so in nearly every other aspect of their lives.   A $15,000 Kia will get you where you need to go the same as a $45,000 BMW.    A $100 Casio tells the same time as a $1,500 Tag Heuer.   Why drink Sierra Nevada when you can have a Schlitz?   But yet BMWs, Tags and Sierras sell well.   Americans pay up for products and services they view as superior.   The 'democratization of luxury' has become pervasive in every aspect of our lives except for air travel.   Airlines have only themselves to blame for this by acting like poorly managed commoditized transport mechanisms rather than the first part of a engaging experience.

    Blaming the Customers

    The biggest questions I have for the airline customer are these: why do we think we should be able to fly for nearly nothing?  Why do we expect anything other than an "air travel-in-a-box" type service when we refuse to allow airlines to actually (gasp) make any money on their product?

    At one point air travel was a luxury, and trip to be enjoyed by a select few.   Then came the democratization of travel.   Deregulation initially served its purpose by creating more airlines and low fares.   But that birthed the problem too.  Somewhere along the way the american air traveler moved from considering flying a privilege to believing it a Constitutionally guaranteed right.   And a low-cost right at that.

    A friend who used to work in airline finance explained to me that the 'click-thru' rate on airfare sites such as Expedia and Orbitz drops off exponentially with each $5 increase in ticket price.   Travelers may greedily grab the $290 dollar round trip from New York to Los Angeles and ignore the $300 ticket.   The price sensitivity he detailed was remarkable.

    All of this at a time when the reason airlines are looking for other revenue sources for exactly the reason we all understand: gas prices are high.   Jet fuel is expensive.    It's estimated higher fuel costs will add $91 billion to airlines' bills this year.

    Airlines have only started to force through fare increases.   Incredibly, on the whole airlines are making nearly the same money on each traveler that they did back in 1985!   The constant push to be cheaper by a few dollars than the next airline on popular routes has been great for travelers, but bad for arlines.  They have nearly no pricing power.    If we want to keep flying, our thinking as consumers has to change.   This isn't a deflationary flat panel television, whose cost gets lower each year due to productivity enhancements.    Flying is essentially the same as it was 30 years ago.

    As we gripe about these (finally) higher ticket prices, it is the uproar over charges for drinks, peanuts and pillows is the most bizarre.   When we go out to eat we pay for food, drink and tip.   We pay more for snacks and drinks at the movies than we do on a flight, but for some reason we accept it at the theatre.   We know that the $20 entree at our local restaurant would cost just $10 to make at home, but Americans are eating out more than ever.     We can cook for ourselves, but not fly.   And yet we still grumbleat the slightest extra airfare, not matter how fair.

    Air travel should not be a commodity.   We are dealing with a major event.   The Bernoulli effect and thousands of pounds of thrust are not small potatoes.   Airplanes themselves cost tens of millions of dollars and involve amazing technology.  They are flown by highly trained pilots.    Do you really want continued cost cuts at 35,000 feet?

    Solution: Acceptance that air travel is not a social service.  Airlines are corporations whose reason for being in business (more and more theoretically it seems) is to make money.    As their costs go up, ticket prices must go up.   And since travelers are resistant to price hikes, airlines have to start charging for drinks and pillows.    Just like milk, movies and education.    We need to realize that the years of nearly free rides are over.   Traveling is a luxury.   You will have to pay more for it.   Live - and fly - with it.

Ian Woolley

Wow..... at last someone tells it like it is..... This whole industry has gone down the tubes since deregulation. When the industry was regulated every thing was just fine, you worked with the formula cost+profit=price. Nice, easy and every one made a buck. In todays deregulated environment the formula seems to be price-cost=profit(or in most cases loss). I think we should bring a bit of regulation back to the industry. Let the airlines charge what they want, with one rule, they have to prove that the fare chareged, must at least cover the full cost of the flight inclusive of inflight service and free baggage allowance. If they want to charge a break even fare, thats fine. But if they want to make a buck for the shareholders (which is the reason they are in business) then the have to factor it in which brings us back to price=cost+profit. The travelling public will just have to get used to the idea that airlines cannot sell a 750 mile flight for $25.00 plus taxes. Lets get real.....

August 6, 2008 at 1:14 pm

Terry Norman

I have been saying these same things since the beginning of July. I'm glad to see somebody agrees with me. I am the product of 3 generations of an airline family. I lived through deregulation and saw the effect it had for years after. I saw big airlines crumble and lives ruined, while new airlines thrive and costs can down to spoil the traveling public. How can brining costs down have such a negative effect on both sides of a major industry? You said it all just as I have. Travel was a luxury and now is like a bus to everyone. It's time to pay a reasonable price for a service unaccustomed to charging a profitable price. It's like everyone is afraid to admit it, but it's pay to sustain the airlines or lose them. I could go on about this for hours. The airlines are dying and everyone is afraid to take the risk required to save it.

August 6, 2008 at 1:22 pm

Blue Forest

It's not just the aircraft. Airports and air traffic control systems have been under strain for years. It will be interesting to see how the (supposedly) super fuel-efficient Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the Airbus A380 superjumbo change things, if at all. Decades ago, there was a debate of sorts over which was the wave of the future (i.e., our present): supersonic air transport, or larger, slower aircraft that carry more passengers per flight? Well, we know the answer now. The supersonic Concorde has headed off to the museums, and its ideological nemesis, the Boeing 747 (and its descendents) are still very much with us. The downside is that financial imperatives make it necessary to cram as many people as possible onto each flight to make it profitable. Heaven help the poor soul who has to get home on a family emergency with only a standby ticket in his or her hand. As far as airline customer service is concerned, my experience has been mixed. I've been on one flight during which the flight attendants visibly became upset with the passengers, and I've been on flights were the service was excellent. I've been on a flight that was delayed on the ground so long that I could literally have driven to my destination more quickly, and my most recent flight from Tokyo to the US arrived at its destination 45 minutes early. It's pretty much the luck of the draw. I've never considered airline travel a right. When I was growing up as a military dependent, we were allowed to fly on military transport aircraft only if open spaces were available after all priority cargo and passengers were aboard. If we were lucky enough to get seats, those seats would either be on pallets bolted to the deck or paratrooper-style bench seats. Unlike a commercial aircraft, military transports are designed to carry mostly cargo, and the comfort of any human passengers is an afterthought. Before takeoff, the loadmaster (the Air Force airman in charge of everything in the cargo hold) comes through and passes out disposable earplugs to all passengers. Those scenes in the movies during which the protagonists have a conversation aboard military transport aircraft are totally bogus - it was impossible to hear or to be heard unless you were almost shouting. After that, I try to keep things in perspective. Regardless of the ticket price, I find that if you plan ahead and pack light, you will probably have better luck, though there are no guarantees.

August 6, 2008 at 5:07 pm

Mike

Unlike any other purchase, the American travel consumer has demanded the cheapest possible air travel money can buy. The system in place is exactly what they want. Safety, efficient, trouble free travel is NOT a consideration. They simply do not care. The only thing that matters is price. Just ask the passengers off Comair 5191, wait, you can't ask them. They are dead. Those who do care no longer travel or fly on private aircraft. The airline industry is going to collapse and the fall will make the S & L bust, the dot com bust, the housing bubble bust, the mortgage meltdown, and the soon oil bubble bust look like insignificant radar blips.

August 6, 2008 at 7:04 pm

JCB Philly Fly Girl

thank you for the honest truth. Airlines are businesses and therefore need to make money. Yes Prices will have to increase to become/remain profitable. I hear it all the time from my fellow co-workers how they don't make enough money w/ all the pay cuts in the last 10 years, but my honest opinion is that for what I do I still make a decent living. So if airlines need to charge for certain ameneties well so be it.

August 6, 2008 at 11:33 pm

airline worker

THANK YOU , thank you , thank you. Someone who FINALLY gets it!!!

August 7, 2008 at 1:03 am

Jonathan

You make many good points on our expectations of airline travel. However, i think that one of the big problems that i have seen is with customer service. Everyone that i know who has flown has had at least one bad experience with the quality of service. Everyone hates to fly. This is not always the fault of the airline, as most of the problems seem to be the fault of the airports themselves. However, people don't care. They hate to fly. Although people are willing to pay more for certain items, such as a car or a watch, they do so expecting the product or sevice to be of higher quality. With air travel, we pay a lot of money for a terrible experience. Not always the airlines fault, but most people still consider flying to be a hassle. Great article, and thanks!

August 7, 2008 at 2:10 am

Dave Swiderski - Penn State University

Hi Brian! This is a well-written and really informative article. Personally, in order fo the airlines to turn it around financially, I think they should just raise their fares and stop the practice of "nickle and diming" their customers to death and then focus on better customer service. It's no wonder passengers are fed up. Every time you turn around, it's costing you $5 for this and $5 for that!!! The airlines have done a lousy job in the past in hedging their fuel cost (except Southwest) and it's time for them to accept responsibilty and stop giving the passenger the "green weenie."

August 7, 2008 at 5:19 am

airline worker

Comment by Blue Forest.... I’ve been on one flight during which the flight attendants visibly became upset with the passengers, and I’ve been on flights were the service was excellent. >> So, Flight attendants are supposed to just take passenger abuse, and keep smiling? and this for 30% less pay than 5 years ago? C'mon. if someone gave you a hard time over something you had no control over ( like the food,or lack thereof,on board)you would just say "thank you,can you yell at me some more?" ..yeah .... Comment by Jonathan With air travel, we pay a lot of money for a terrible experience. >>Uh, did you read the article? You may THINK you are paying a lot of money, but honestly, you're not paying enough. Caveat emptor, you get what you pay for. Sadly, if you watch the airline industry, you would notice you are paying for a bunch of Executives and NOT for whatever the airline could offer. Ex.: AAL has lavished over $400 Million in profits and bonuses (over the past 3 years) on their executives( CEO in particular), instead of re-investing in the airline. Does that tell you anything about the priorities of the leadership in the industry?

August 7, 2008 at 11:11 am

Blue Forest

To airline worker: Nowhere in my post did I state that the flight attendants either were subjected to passenger abuse, or were obligated to do so. FWIW, I have a relative who works as a crew member for a major domestic US airline, so no-one is more sympathetic to what flight crews do than I am. Such defensiveness on your part was entirely uncalled for.

August 7, 2008 at 11:38 am

Ian Woolley

About the issue of Customer Service, or lack of it in todays airline industry, the answer goes directly back to price. Customer Service costs. In order to provide a sustainable high level of customer service a company requires well trained and highly motivated personnel. The problem today is, that with all the cost cutting going on, training budjets are slashed, at least in non mandated training areas and saleries are reduced in order to provide passengers seats on aircraft at prices that are just not sustainable. Motivation goes out the window and takes Customer Service with it. You can't keep asking people to do more with less indefinately and expect that they will. The good years (for the passenger) are gone, oil prices are through the roof, and I can remember how the airlines screamed when crude topped the $50.00 a barrel mark. Wake up out there, RASM (Revenue per available seat mile) has to exceed CASM (Cost per available seat mile. If it does'nt you're dead, or at least dying.

August 7, 2008 at 11:50 am

Shan

I agree with most of the argument here and yes they can raise the fare to keep up with the oil since they are running a business to make a profit. But they should also be responsible with the profit they make. They should try & re-invest the money they make to improve the service at the same time maintaining a reasonable profit margins. When we talk about living within our means it means you got to spend within what you earn, same should also apply for the business. So we cannot entirely blame it on the Oil price & Inflation. They could have hedged the oil price like southwest or they could have saved some money they earned after coming out of bankruptcy as a cushion for these circumstances. Many airlines after they emerged from Bankruptcy rewarded their CEO's with tons of stock options & bonus worth millions of dollars while pay cuts for employees(US Air - $6Million,United - $40Million,Northwest - $26Million).Of-course these are stocks that were to vest over a period of time. But I am not saying, don't reward your CEO, but be reasonable. When stock holders & Board reward the management when they are doing good, they should also pull their leash when things go wrong rather than reward them again. Continental CEO's are taking pay cuts now,its not that they are starving to death or working for low wages. But Continental is serving free sandwiches on its flight!Maybe there is still room to run your business efficiently and make some profits.

August 7, 2008 at 12:18 pm

Joe Hunt

It sounds like this article is making excuses for poor service and trying to justify it. I have no problem with cutting the amenities or charging extra for them. Like any other industry, they have to have a business model that will allow them to make a profit, but get the basics right. I am not willing to fly if it means using three connections and long delays in-between. Although not always possible, I would rather drive and suffer the inconvenience/time, than accept poor service. What other industry considers bad service as an acceptable model, and expect their customers to accept it?

August 7, 2008 at 1:09 pm

Phil Hutchison

Thank you for an excellent article, looking at the other side, it seems that it has now become a game to impress your friends, amazing I only paid xxx for my flight. There are so many high cost items which have been inherited from the before deregulation days, such as pilot salaries,an overhang from the heroes of the battle of Britain ( captains only travel in first class ), ATC charges, landing fees and associated airport charges. In many cases the only persons you meet and represent the airlines are the check in people and the cabin crew and if you have a good flight or not depends on them. Unfortunately they are taken for granted and are really cheap labor and a requirement from the relevant Civil Aviation Authorities. Southwest have got this right, the cabin crew are important, they sell your next ticket, not the pilot and if the next ticket is not sold, you soon will not need the pilot. Perhaps the airlines should incorporate a Little lateral thinking, things have changed since the days of B.O.A.C, Panam, Transworld

August 8, 2008 at 1:43 am

Rick Seaney vs. Brian Sullivan… « Inside Cable News

[...] Fare Compare.com’s CEO Rick Seaney fisks FBN’s Brian Sullivan over the latter’s article on the airline business and who’s to blame, and throws an unexptected small elbow at Sullivan [...]

August 12, 2008 at 3:41 pm

Corey

I am one of the many people who simply fly only rarely, not based on hatred of airlines, but due to not wishing to pay the prices required for long distance travel. If I have to fly there, I just don't go, it's as simple as that. My wife and I have gone to weddings and flown, but only due to the low price fares. If fares go up, I will have no animosity towards airlines, I simply won't go on trips via air. One real problem is that in say, Atlanta, you have to go through the same TSA line for Delta as for Airtran, so Delta can only marginally improve your experience at the airport (my main reason for disliking air travel) without having their improvements benefit Airtran flyers. BTW, I would gladly pay a few dollars more for a flight to get free refreshements; of course, that could be due to business flight where I pay for refreshments but not the fare. :) I think the basic truth is that profitable air travel levels fall far below the present levels, so until the supply is reduced to match profitable demand, airlines will have to fly at a loss. Maybe larger seats in coach would work, as I frankly look very hard for flights with low occupancy in order to have more space. If having empty seats around people becomes of significant import, then larger seats would make a difference. I would pay more for an airline that had larger seats, though it would take a bit to get me to think of it as right to pay more for a larger seat on the same flight as people paying less for smaller seats. Actually, I would pay more (but NOT first class more!) for a slightly larger seat. Unfortunately, airlines do not seem to grasp this so all seats are sized for 100 lb 5 foot tall passengers. Oh well, my car has comfortable seats and I like to drive!

August 14, 2008 at 11:21 am

1077

I flew about 2 million miles in my life, on business and privately and I believe I have seen it all (or close to it). On my latest vacation flight I was supposed to connect in Chicago. On my route to Chicago there were 3 flights in the day. In order to ensure that I do not miss the connection, I asked to be put on the earlier flight: no deal because "a connection exceeding 4 hours is considered a 'lay-over' and cannot be booked". Arriving to the airport, there was a wheather delay. And the check-in clerk said that had I come to the earlier flight she would have let me on... Numerous emails to the airline, including letters to the top management could not accomplish what a desk clerk was willing to do. So it is not the people serving the public who are at fault but the bosses getting the millions of dollars in bonuses. Why is it so? Because the airlines have gotten too big to be managed efficiently. Just like governments, rules overrule common sense. The solution is to break-up the behemoths of the industry and let the well managed smaller airlines get rich and let the poorly managed ones go bankrupt. As simple as that. If you do not graso the concept I recommend reading Ronald Coase who lready in the 30's elaborated the theory demonstrating that a company can get too big for its own good, its customers' good and society's good. The extreme example: centrally planned economies. You do not need communists to run an inefficient economy.

August 19, 2008 at 4:21 pm

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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