Rigzone has this interesting map of all the platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and the projected path of Tropical Storm Gustav.

Getting ready for the morning program so only a few minutes for quick thoughts on the business angles of Barack Obama’s speech last night:

1. Obama repeatedly referenced corporations and corporate profits, mentioning their low tax burdens and invoking his idea about a windfall profits tax on the oil companies.   We must remember that corporations are not singular entities with a common brain and purpose.  They are simply large collections of women and men, working hard every day to earn a living and provide for their families.   There has been a tendency to paint corporate America with a common brush.   I am not a tax expert and the tax code is too complex to detail exactly what every company pays.   But I know that the Fortune 500 members employ tens of millions of people, and labor is the single biggest cost on every balance sheet.   I’ve been doing this long enough to know that when companies face profit slowdowns and higher costs, the first thing they cut are jobs.  If corporate tax burdens rise, profits fall.   Companies rarely add workers in a falling profit environment.

2. He specifically called out insurance companies and noted he would go after them for what he viewed as not paying enough in policies for the care of the ill.    Shareholders be wary on this group.

3. On high gas prices and the automakers Obama noted: “I’ll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America.“    Actually most cars sold in America are already built in America.    Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai and other foreign automakers make many of their most fuel-efficient models in the United States.   The Accord is built in Marysville, Ohio.   There are also more autoworkers in America than ever before, though there are far few UAW member autoworkers.   There is no doubt GM, Ford and Chrysler have massive problems and that the state of Michigan is struggling, but it is incorrect to suggest that American workers aren’t building fuel-efficient cars.

4. More talk about reducing foreign oil dependence and increasing alternative energy solutions.   McCain will also likely hit this theme.   Still need more specifics but in all it seems a long-term positive for companies in wind, solar and possibly even nuclear power.

In the race to outdo their own past conventions and each other, the Democrats and Republicans have turned what used to be important voting events into 4-day long Super Bowl-like productions, with the cost to go with it.  It’s estimated the DNC will cost as much as $120 million dollars.    It’s likely the Republican Convention will be equally extravagant.   Parties, free food, more parties, elaborate sound stages.    All now part of the show.   And all very expensive.

I like free food, parties and cold beverages as much as the next guy.   But I find it hard to listen to speeches and lectures about a weakening economy and helping the average American when the money spent on these productions could be spent providing some of that help.

The DNC is nearly over, so there is nothing the Dems can do about it this year.   But if the Republicans want to use helping the economy as one of their key messages, they still have time to cut back, make the convention a one-day gig, hold it in a volunteer fire hall and serve hot pockets and pizza bites.

$200+ million bucks for both conventions could pay for a lot of overdue mortgages.

The Pete Peterson Foundation is making headlines with the promotion of the new documentary I.O.U.S.A. It’s the film that is meant to do for bad fiscal policy and debt what An Inconvenient Truth did for global warming by calling attention to what the organization believes is the greatest crisis facing Americans in the coming decades: America’s massive debt load and financial mismanagement.

According to the Foundation and U.S. Government statistics the total federal burden facing America is more than $52 trillion dollars.  That’s trillion, with a ‘t.’   And while the numbers ultimately are complicated, the idea is not.   Simply put, what the government is spending on entitlement programs, health care, defense, pensions and other obligations far outstrips what it is bringing in.   In short, we owe.    A lot.

According to the General Accounting Office, that $52 trillion dollar bill breaks down to $175,000 for every man, woman and child.   Since it includes non-taxpaying childen, the actual per household burden works out to be $455,000.

Programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid make up the bulk of the problem.   About 42% of the Federal budget goes to these programs.   Each has its own crisis.  Social Security needs to fund the Boomers, of whom an average of 10,000 per day will become eligible for benefits over the next twenty years.   Taxpayers also pay for one-third of the country’s medical bills through Medicare and Medicaid, and since Medicare began in 1965 the federal share of that bill has tripled.

Peterson Foundation’s President and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker notes that unless the government gets its fiscal house in order and begins either cutting costs or raising revenues dramatically (or both) in the next decade, the country faces what he calls a “fiscal cancer.”

Thursday on Fox Business, tune in to watch my interview with David.  I ask him not just about the sizeable problem, but also about possible solutions and what it will take to get out of this fiscal mess.   Be sure to watch, or catch it on Foxbusiness.com

BusinessWeek just released its “World’s Happiest Countries” list.     If the list is to be believed, high taxes and high gas prices have little to do with overall happiness.

Eight of the 10 countries on the list are European and high-tax nations.    BusinessWeek’s “happiest” country this year is Denmark.    This despite the highest income tax rate in the developed world, nearly $10 per gallon gasoline and generally horrible weather.

We Americans are angry over the prospect of any tax increase and the current price of gas.  So why are the Danes so happy?

The article notes something the Danes call ‘hygge,’ which basically means a strong family bond.   I can’t speak to “hooga” (as its pronounced apparently), but I can speak to bikes.    Having been to Denmark I noticed hat nearly everyone, at least in Copenhagen, tends to bicycle.   There were cars, but they were far outnumbered by bikes.   There was also a bike system where anyone could put in a $2 coin and rent a bike, which could be returned to any bike rack in the city whereupon you would take the $2 coin that was left by the person previously at the rack.   The point is not even that they biked; its that they lived close enough to work to use a bike as their commuting vehicle.  Thus they probably don’t care that much about the price of gas.   Studies have shown that the longer your commute is, the less happier you tend to be.   Maybe one positive about the energy situation is that Americans will begin move back closer to the cities.    It’s already happening in places like New York and Chicago.    Overly wealthy Hollywooders are even “downsizing” (loosely defined) and moving into condos in downtown Los Angeles.   I venture to guess that the flight to the exburbs has seen its peak.  Maybe a smaller house and a shorter commute is a positive thing.  

So maybe that explains the gas thing.   As for Denmark’s high happiness level with the taxes and the weather, I’ll leave that to others to figure out.   Maybe its the “hooga.”   Maybe its the people.  Maybe it has something to do with the beer.

Tween retailer The Buckle (NYSE: BKE) posted another big quarter.   Net income rose 88.9% on a 36.6% net sales increase.  While those numbers are impressive, more noteworthy is the same store sales jump of 27.8%.    While this is actually a drop from the previous quarters 34.7% same store sales gain, its still an impressive figure given the economy and whats happening to its competition.

Hot Topic (NYSE: HOTT) lost a penny last quarter and comparable sales fell 4% at its Hot Topic branded stores and 11%  at its Torrid brand.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) reported a drop in second quarter net income of 4% and the CEO noted: “Our second quarter financial results reflect difficult macroeconomic conditions and a significant slowdown in consumer spending.”

You find this often with the retailers.    One chain will complain of slowdowns, economic pain or (my favorite) adverse weather.   Others who will post blowout numbers.   This shows retail investing does indeed come down to what’s hot and what’s not.   The Buckle’s goods are hot, most of the rest are not.

I first wrote about The Buckle back on June 5th and will continue to watch the story.

The Wall Street Journal today reports that eBay (EBAY) is again changing its fee structure in a bid to raise customer traffic and increase profits.  The article notes:

“Online auctioneer eBay Inc. said it will lower the fees it charges for products listed for sale at a fixed price, in a bid to become more competitive with rival Web sites such as Amazon. com Inc. Ebay, which sparked seller protests earlier this year when it raised fees for auction listings, said it will reduce the fee for fixed-price listings to 35 cents, down from as much as $4, and increase the duration of a listing to 30 days from seven. The company will simultaneously raise the commission it charges once the products are sold — in effect taking on more responsibility to drive buyers to the site. Ebay declined to provide details of the commission increase. Both changes are effective Sept. 14. The company is playing catch-up to other Web sites that have focused on fixed-price sales.”

What’s interesting is not just the fee change, but the fact that the Journal calls Amazon a “rival.”    It’s correct, of course, but certainly not what eBay set out to be from the start.  It set out to be the un-retailer.   A giant garage sale where bargain hungry buyers and eager sellers could find common ground and make a deal.   And deals were to be had.   It’s what first drove me to eBay back in November 1998 when I made my first purchase on the site (100% positive feedback on 32 transactions, I’m happy to say).   Even with the painful dialup speeds on Prodigy it was fun to browse eBay, to discover a deal on something you didn’t even realize you wanted.

The point: it was fun.   Rarely did I go on the site to find something I needed.  It was to instead find something I wanted.   The same fun that drives millions of Americans to the newly-verbed activity of “antiquing.”  The thrill of the bargain hunt.    And the deals were usually between individual sellers and buyers.   True or not, it feels like you are getting a better deal when buying from a household rather than a retailer on a used good.    Searches now on items like “iPods” and “bikes” shows that many sellers appear to be businesses, not individuals.   My quick, unccientific scan of “buy it now” prices on eBay and the same items on Amazon.com returned similar prices.

I use Amazon, but use it differently.   I use it to shop for goods I already know I want.   It’s a comparison shopping site for me.    I don’t use it to browse.   Find, click, purchase, ship.   Rarely am I on the website for more than 5 minutes.  This is great for sellers, but not as good for the ’stickiness’ of the website and thus advertising rates.

This is why hearing eBay described as a rival to Amazon is likely not what eBay investors want to hear.   Amazon has been in the fixed-price game for a long time and does it well.   It was an early arrival and took advantage of the slow internet buildouts of retailers like Wal-Mart.   But now Wal-Mart, Target and others are fully ensconced on the internet.  And Amazon is no doubt up for a long fight with these powerful stores for web shoppers.   Does eBay really want to get further into that mix by encouraging the fixed-price side of its business?

My advice is for eBay to return to its roots.    Take a lesson from Craigslist, which has really become the “new eBay.”   It’s actually fun to search the graphics-deficient Craigslist for bargains.    eBay needs to become the “next craigslist.”   Find ways to encourage individual sellers and buyers back to the site.   Make it more of the garage-sale-on-the-web it used to be.   It will make buyers feel like they are getting better deals and not simply buying from retailers such as Amazon and Wal-Mart.   Keeping buyers browsing will also raise eyeball time on the site and drive ad rates.

So two notes to eBay:

1) Wal-Mart, Target, Sears and Amazon don’t have much interest in the auction market.   Their sizeable insfrastructure costs require more transaction volume than mere auctions can provide.   Stick to the market where you are already the leader.

2) Make it fun again.   When I search for “skis” and most of the 12,534 matches appear to come from full-scale web retailers instead of potentially bargain generating individual sellers, it’s not worth it.  If I’m going to pay full price, I’d rather go to the store.

The July producer price index figure shows wholesale prices surged 1.2% in July.   That’s the biggest jump in 27 years.   Truly stunning, particularly when you consider many strategists believe we are entering a period of slower global economic growth.   Prices theoretically should be falling, not rising, as slower growth means (theoretically) slower demand.    Of course, economic theory has often proved an oxymoron.  

The featured markets guest on the program today was Sri Kumar, Chief Global Strategist at TCW Group.   He believes that even with continued tight lending standards and a weak housing market the Federal Reserve must - and will - raise interest rates sooner than later.   Though economic doves insist the Fed should stay on hold in its future meetings, Kumar shares my view that there are two primary reasons the Fed should increase the overnight lending rate: 1) we need to stem the increase in inflation and strengthen the dollar, and 2) a quarter-point (25 basis point) increase in rates will not further dent the weak credit market further but will instead give investors an important psychological boost.

When the Fed is cutting rates it is generally because the economy is weakening and the central bank is trying to stimulate growth by increasing lending and borrowing.    It’s a ’sale’ on money, if you will.   And many investors see Fed cuts as retailers see sales: a blunt instrument that customers know is meant to lure them in.    When something is not on sale its presumed there is sufficient demand to sell the product at full price, a bullish sign.  If the Fed raises rates Kumar believes it would make an important psychological statement about the health of the Fed’s ’store,’ the American economy.

The next Fed meetings this year are: September 16th (one day), Octboer 28-29 (two day) and December 16th (one day).    The first meeting in 2009 is January 27-28th (two day).  It’s my and Sri’s bet that the Fed will raise interest rates at one of those next four meetings.  Stay tuned.

FareCompare.com’s Rick Seaney wrote a thoughtful response to my airline posting.   You can read it here.  http://rickseaney.com/2008/08/07/pay-more-and-live-fly-with-it/

Rick makes many good points about my statement that “flying is essentially the same” as it was decades ago.   Those points though are mostly off topic.   If I wasn’t clear what I meant was that while there certainly have been many technological and mechanical improvements in the act of travel (emphasis added) by flight, the general concept is the same: board plane, sit in seat, arrive at destination.   The fact that there are call centers in India doesn’t change the act of flying.   Wings, jet propulsion, loft.

Granted I haven’t been flying for that long (my first trip was in 1984 on the long-gone Western Airlines), but I seem to remember that it was about the same then as it is now.  If anything the fit is a bit tighter (some due to my age-based expanding waistline, some likely due to less “pitch” - the space between seats) and the planes a bit more crowded.  There are 747’s still flying that were in the air before my first flight.

I wonder if Rick read my next post about how my flight was delayed that Thursday, forcing me to miss my connection and not arriving until the next day.   I was annoyed because it cost me one less day with my family on vacation, but I was still gentle to the Northwest Airlines agents because I know their job is tough enough.   I can’t say as much for some of my fellow fliers.   As difficult as air travel can be, we should remember that the men and women at the gate have zero to do with any delays or cancellations.

And someday I hope to know what its like to fly free with award travel.   I don’t rack up enough miles.  Wish I did though with all these higher fares…

It must be bad karma from writing about the airlines.   My 3:38pm flight to Detroit on Northwest is delayed for three hours.   Apparently the plane needs maintenance.  Either way I will now miss my connecting flight, with the next one being the same time (6:30pm) on Friday.    

So it looks like I’m going to get to the Motor City around 9pm tonight, rent a car and drive the 7 hours.   Northwest won’t comp a hotel room because in their view they are getting me to Detroit, the destination on my first ticket.  It’s drive or literally get there 24 hours later.    

There’s irony here somewhere.