The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • July 3, 2008 08:54 AM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    Think Long-Term

    Something to think about heading into the long weekend...

    Bigcharts.com

    Courtesy: Bigcharts.com

    This is a chart of the Dow back to 1970. Take note of one thing: after every bump, big or small, the Dow's bias generally is to go higher over long periods of time. This is in some ways simply logical. As long as U.S. GDP and productivity are expanding, so too should corporate America. The real return can be mitigated by high inflation, yes, but if stocks are hit by inflation then so too would many other investments such as bonds.

    I'm pointing out again what you likely already know merely as a reminder that the best investors over time tend to remember one premise: buy low, sell high. Let me repeat: buy low, sell high.

    I'm not suggesting these are the lows for the stock market. I have no idea. There are so many forces we haven't seen before (collapse of housing, $5 gas, $145 oil, credit crunch, etc) that I'm not sure any one person really knows where we are headed in the next few months, quarters or even years. Certainly there is little history to base any models on for this type of environment.

    That said, I continue to think about the chart above. I also think about how the 10 year annualized total return of the DJIA is 9.49%.

    Certainly there are long stretches where stocks as a whole do not go up. For example, it took 24 years for the Dow to get back to its 1929 highs. Similarly the years from 1969 to 1981 witnessed a Dow that barely budged. And look at the tech bubble pop from 2000 - 2003. The Dow lost about 4,000 points, making the recent decline actually seem paltry. Either way, these were painful times for investors, no doubt.

    But again I look at these periods and think, "isn't that when we should've been buyers?" if we are investing for 10, 20 or 30 years out? Trying to time the market is a fool's game, but dollar cost averaging is a different story. If you thought the worst was over in late 2001/2002 and bought the overall market when the Dow was around 9,000 you had a painful next 12 months. But if you held that position for a few years, or added on the way down, you would've had a 5,000 point gain on the Dow 30 in just a few years. If you didn't sell and continue to hold the position you would still be up nearly 3,000 points on the Dow, even with the awful hit in the past six months.

    I was just chatting with a smart friend of mine who said "why buy though if you think its going to keep going down? You will be wasting your money." Its a fair point, and there is certainly a psychological impact to getting those monthly statements seeing your paper wealth decline. But then I think about the alternatives. The bank? That's a negative real return with inflation. Bonds? See 'the bank.' Gold? Maybe, but watch out for the Fed's recently more hawkish comments on inflation. Sock drawer? Too nasty.

    Two things to remember about the above point. First, many stocks pay dividends. So you will get paid a bit while you wait, probably as much as a CD at the bank. Second, unless you need to suddenly pull the money from the market you don't 'lose' anything until you sell. There is no loss until it is realized.

    Again, I'm not saying go out and buy stocks today. There is probably more pain to come in the overall market, and things are likely to get worse with housing and the economy before they turn around. My point is just that the 100+ year history of the Dow shows that the stock market - over time - generally goes higher. If it didn't, there wouldn't be a market. Investors wouldn't put money into any instrument with a long-term losing record. The mere existence of stocks is the best symbol that someone, somewhere generally considers them a good investment over time.

    And that's the rub. Its over time. I am fairly confident that the Dow will be higher than it is right now in 20 years. Possibly even 10. 5? That may be a different story. But as a 36 year old who won't retire for 25+ years, I go back to the mantra of buy low, sell high. If I put money into my 401k each month when the Dow is at 13,000, why wouldn't I want to put just as much - or more - into it at Dow 11,500?

    Have a great 4th of July.

Rob

Furthermore, let's talk about the individual stocks that are down 80%, 90% or even no longer exist.

July 8, 2008 at 11:03 am

Rob

This is a very deceptive graph. If you bought in the late 90's, it barely moved over 10 years. Look at where it dipped from 12k to 8k over 5 or 6 years. You are better off throwing your money in a mattress than in this case. Past performance is hardly an indicator of future performance. Why did you leave out the chart of the Nasdaq which was at a high of 5k and dropped to around 1.3k? America can collapse. Things can get worse, and things can go from worse to awful. Even if things do pick up, you've got 10 years of pain in the meantime. Buy and hold is a manipulative tactic. Smart investors will buy, and run like hell when they make a profit.

July 8, 2008 at 11:00 am

Mike

American man you are an idiot. Go back to school and start with English 101, Economics 101, and then History 101, read the section on socialism twice. The economy has and always will have ups and downs. Under President Bush we had almost eight years of growth. Then people, probably like you, ran up debt on their credit cards, bought houses they could not afford, and spent way beyond their means. Now according to Senator Obama and his following, it's the government's job to take money out of my pocket to put in someone else's pocket. I worked hard to achieve my success and I intend to enjoy it, not give it to irresponsible leaches who are incapable of accepting responsibility for their actions.

July 4, 2008 at 8:02 am

Elysee Productions

Brian: It seems this blog entry has attracted a couple of citizens whose daily activities include strumming "They're Coming To Take Me Away, Ha-Ha!" on their pajama cord. Your "Think Long-Term" observations are, of course, correct. For those of us who do think that way you're validating what we know to be true. It has been a personal practice to study the past, apply that to the present and extrapolate the knowledge to predict what's likely to happen 3-5 years out. Thinking long term is applicable to finances as well as the human aspects of our lives. You posed an interesting question: "If I put money into my 401k each month when the Dow is at 13,000, why wouldn’t I want to put just as much - or more - into it at Dow 11,500?" It's certainly worth considering, but for someone like myself who is a fiscal conservative I'd rather place money in a steadfast and predictable instrument. Yet, my instincts scream that some wise buys in a 11,500 Dow would eventually yield a higher ROI. You're doing a sensational job on FBN every morning. Recommend you have the FBN webmasters create better navigation to access your blog. Yours is the most difficult to find.

July 3, 2008 at 8:54 pm

Opportunity

"American Man" - The government is not your answer they can't take care of you and your stereotypical "Money is evil" thinking. Obama can't fix you either. The reason there is no long term for lots of Americans is because they are financially illiterate. The reason for that is because they were raised by people who were also financially illiterate in a school system that does not teach about money and with the false ideal that someone else is responsible for their lives. Then to boot they were also taught to hate those who have more than they do. Why would you ever want to be something that you hate?! This article is one piece of a large puzzle that those of us who want to educate ourselves as to the power of money pay attention to everyday. And everyday our ongoing learning also consists of wadding thru posters like yourself that just whine about what they do not know so they can blame someone else for their ignorance. You sound like a bratty child who as never taught self accountability and responsibility. The general attitude of this article is to be positive and optimistic in a time of uncertainty. Unfortunately you have chosen to make your default outlook just the opposite.

July 3, 2008 at 5:48 pm

Dill

Brian, I agree with you 100%. I'm also sick and tired of hearing about all the doom and gloom. People have had such cushy lives for so long that even the slightest bump seems like the end of the world to them. When I was in Iraq I remember seeing people wait in line for hours just to get gasoline (in a country where oil is obviously plentiful). I know. It's all our fault. Blah, blah, blah. My point is that if people would stop being so lazy and complain all the time about how horrible this country is, maybe we could actually accomplish something. We are still a great country, no thanks to most of the people currently living. If we don't appreciate and use the advantages that were given to us, then we'll become just like the Europeans, and guess what: THERE WON'T BE ANYONE LEFT TO PROTECT US. So we have two options: We can take the easy route (in my opinion) and put forth a small amount of effort to better ourselves and our country like are ancestors did, or we can wallow in our own narcissistic self-indulgence until someone puts us out of our misery. Believe me, there are plenty of people that would love to see us wiped off the map.

July 3, 2008 at 4:09 pm

GeneralGaoChicken

Slowly I awake to realize -wait, I'm 40 and then it hits me Oh no, people who dropped acid at a Grateful Dead concert are now filling the seats of those before them that actually had a clue - Soon, just merely associating with anyone over 50 will be enough guidance for many - I've no faith in this 'profit profit profit' mentality. Life is plentiful with loss- Where did anyone ever promise anyone a rose garden ? The hog has been tied, we've lived off the hog, the fat is merely dripping into the fire causing a blaze of smoke and once that is gone ? people don't know how to get another hog. Maybe they can youtube how to make fire ? Maybe this generation coming in can youtube how to google ? ugh! Education Education Education, THAT is the REAL investment you can make in life. Without meaning, you might as well chase a falling dollar into oblivion.

July 3, 2008 at 10:46 am

Dr Wolf Shipon

Hi Brian, Thanks for the post. This is in line with my current thinking. The key for most people, I believe, is to acquire local or mass-transit-accessible, recession-proof jobs. That way, even if there is only $20 to invest at the end of a week in inexpensive stocks, they are worth buying and holding on the way down. Meanwhile, steady income continues to pay the bills and support a modest lifestyle during the crunch. Industries such as government, discount retailers, and healthcare seem to be pretty safe bets in this economy. Good luck to the other modest investors out there.

July 3, 2008 at 10:02 am

American Man

There is no long term for millions of Americans who taking the brunt force of the economic polices that you and Bush support. The think is no matter how good you life is at the expense of the American People it really doesn't matter. Real Americans don't put their people in danger just to make a buck. The world economy is a fraud promoted by those who see the American People as their prey. Day is coming when the Wealthy will find out that their fellow Americas resent what they have done only to enrich themselves. Obama coming and it will be a train wreck for the rich. That is righ, class warfare? you bet cha.

July 3, 2008 at 9:40 am

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

most popular posts