The Brian Sullivan Blog
  • June 24, 2008 08:05 AM EDT by Brian Sullivan

    Denouncing Speculation Here, Promoting Speculation There

    File this entry under, "it must not be the act, it must be the market" that matters.  

    Two distinct stories in the Wall St. Journal today opposing Congressional views on forms of speculation.   The first deals with oil and is simply titled "Oil Speculation Draws Scrutiny."  It discusses hearings in Congress suggesting oil prices could fall if bills were passed to curb speculation, perhaps by imposing higher margin requirements on futures (basically the money down to cover the contract): 

    House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Rep. John Dingell, (D., Mich.), said lawmakers should set firm limits on the size of energy speculators' positions, require full disclosure of all energy trading from investment banks; and prevent pension funds from investing in commodities as they seek to diversify their holdings.

    Mr. Dingell and others at the subcommittee meeting said Congress should consider forcing speculators to put up margin, or collateral, worth 50% of the value of energy futures in which they seek to trade [emphasis mine].  Today margins requirements for most traders in oil futures are often in single-digit percentages of the value of their commodity holdings.

    I found it interesting that his news is out the same day as anoher story in the Journal today called "Mortgage Program Fuels Risks."   This excellent story by Nick Timiraos details how a government-backed program has largely replaced the private subprime loan market in allowing buyers to get into homes with little to no money down  [emphasis mine]:

    Mortgages that allow consumers to put little if any money down when buying a home have largely disappeared as a financing option available from private lenders. But they are still available -- and growing more popular -- through a government-backed program.

    Supporters of the down-payment programs say they help the FHA fulfill its goal of assisting first-time home buyers. But critics say the programs will burden the government agency, and taxpayers, with bad loans. The FHA, which essentially is filling the void left by the collapse of the subprime market, renewed a push to eliminate the programs this month, after warning that above-average default rates for seller-assisted down-payment programs will force the agency to request a government subsidy for the first time in its 74-year history. The agency says it will need $1.4 billion next year.

    "I just smell a massive taxpayer burden coming," says Sen. Christopher Bond (R., Mo.), who calls the programs "too good to be true."

    The story continues, outlining the potential risk:

    To critics, mortgages with down-payment assistance are similar to no-money-down subprime loans, which have triggered a wave of foreclosures. Most bankers believe defaults are so high because borrowers who encounter financial difficulties are more willing to walk away from a home when they didn't put much of their own money into the purchase.

    So let's get this straight; oil speculators are bad for the market because they 1) drive prices up by putting very little money down, 2) with little concern about the market's overall health and 3) have no vested interest in the underlying asset.

    But yet the government is promoting and backing programs that allow homebuyers to get into homes they may not be able to afford and 1) can walk away from 2) without much risk and 3) the added new buyers in the market contribute to altering prices or driving them up by creating artificial demand.

    Housing and mortgage speculators have been widely blamed for contributing to the home bubble's burst.   In the once red-hot housing markets of Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami and parts of California speculators - or 'flippers', people with no interest in living in the home - are estimated to be as much as 30% of the homebuying activity.   My question then is this: how much is home flipping different from oil speculation?   Isn't the incentive and goal the same: use little to no capital to ride a hot market higher purely for profit?

    The high price of oil and gas is often referred to as a tax on American drivers and families.   Whatever you want to call it, high commodity prices leave us with less in our wallets at the end of the month.   Just like subprime bailouts.   By some accounts, 90% of new homes purchased recently are using loans guaranteed by the FHA, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.   Basically, the government is putting its credit up to allow buyers to find low-or-no money down loans.  

    So if the buyer defaults on the home and walks away, who holds the note?  The government.  Pay attention to the part in the housing story that says: "The agency says it will need $1.4 billion next year."  Who then covers the potential losses in the housing market if government-backed subprime borrowers default and walk away?   You do.   Sounds a lot like a tax.

    I understand the difference between the markets.   Congress has zero incentive to stabilize gas and oil prices.    Just the opposite, the incentive is to keep them lower.   Higher commodity prices benefit few save for the producer of the commodity.   Higher home prices meantime help drive the American economy.   Home ownership is proven to provide both economic and social benefits to communities.   However, there is a big difference between helping out those who were misled on their mortgages stay in their current homes versus promoting government-backed programs that not only enable further speculation in the housing market, but also help to drive the sales of private-sector companies like the homebuilders.  If I were Ford, GM or Chrysler I would read Nick's story and ask: where are our government loan programs to push the sale of cars and trucks using taxpayer money?

    Regardless of the market, to me an extra $200 bucks a month in gas or an extra $200 bucks a month in taxes to bailout defaulting government-backed homebuyers is no different.  I'm still out of the money.

Justin

good post. the hypocrisy of the bureaucrats never ceases to amaze me. Welcome to America, socialist haven for farmers, corporations, banks, the poor, the rich, the politicians, and the people that got these bureaucrats into office for life. Pure capitalism doesn't exist here. This nation is a complete welfare state. It's a terrible blending of communism and fascism. If you are poor or rich, the system is great, but if you are anywhere in between, you are getting sucked dry. We need a free market revolution NOW!!!

June 24, 2008 at 11:37 am

Corey

This seems to indicate that you believe speculation should be allowed by highlighting the hypocrisy of the government positions. I think the extraordinary volatility in the housing market and the people forced to turn down promotions due to being upside down on their mortgages are a direct result of speculation in the housing market. This market has been harmed as much as if not more than the oil market by speculators. I think the government should be consistent in its treatment of speculation, and that margin rates of 50% should probably be a minimum for any commodity investment, housing included. Obviously homes are the primary debt of the average American, so a special exception could be made, but only for those people interested in actually intending to live in the home. Obviously there would be exceptions, which is how a 2 page law becomes a 6 volume code, but low margin speculation has created (or exacerbated) much quicker and more harmful volatility in many areas of the american economy. I agree that bailouts for defaulters should not be government financed, and I also believe that the financial companies should have allowed to fail. If that caused much greater damage to the US economy, maybe it would have helped to sway future legislators and mortgage commodity investors themselves from allowing and engaging in so much risk in subprime no-down loans. Now I have to research the '80's S&L bailouts and see if the bailout strategy isn't a direct reason for this happening a mere 25 years later as opposed to nearly 60 years after the 1929 incident with no bailouts.

June 24, 2008 at 1:21 pm

Todd

They require reasonably good credit for these loans. Much of the subprime problem stems from giving people with poor credit high price loans. To assume just because one is a first time homebuyer, that they have poor credit is awfully short sighted. This article sucks, as it is based in your head not reality.

June 24, 2008 at 3:04 pm

Rod

You are simplifying the subprime crisis with this arguement. There were many, many other factors fueling the fire including poor lending standards by underqualified mortgage originators, falsified documents and borrowers who were better off as tenants than homeowners (oh yeah and this was the private market steering this car not the government!). The government-sponsored programs support homeownership educuation and monitor income before giving loans. Assisting responsible families to enter our country's housing market is a commendable goal which I, a tax paying citizen 100% support!

June 25, 2008 at 8:52 am

Steve

where's my tax funded money? tired of bailing out everyone while attempting to prudently run my own fiscal house. This includes wall street, banks, finance companies, speculators, purchasers. Personally, I would require any bailout to require the executives to be fired with options and bonuses repaid,and the board of directors to forfeit options and bonuses after 2005.

June 25, 2008 at 12:43 pm

Corey

In response to Rod, the government very much steers people to own rather than rent through making mortgage interest deductible and taxing rent in addition to taxing the landlords on the property without homestead exemptions. (I'm not really sure how landlords are taxed, never had an investment prop, but I do know standard homeowners exemption doesn't apply.) It's certainly been a large part of my decisions to buy instead of rent on 2 occasions, and to finance larger portions of the home rather than pay it down. I really don't understand why people should be penalized for choosing to rent. (Yes, penalize is the correct word. Raising taxes overall to give tax breaks to home owners penalizes renters.)

June 26, 2008 at 4:42 pm

American Man

We should either limit speculation our outright ban it. If it doesn't work then we can put it back the way it was. The purpose of our lives is not to enrich people who could care less what happens to the USA or her people.

June 27, 2008 at 10:08 am

Marsh

Oh my!! So many victims, so few programs! You can always trot out a real victim, but the attempt to paint the majority of those who suffered because of their own decisions as victims is truly Elitist. Like most other decisions, self interest fueled the boom. Made worse by an "I want and deserve it now" attitude. Why budget and save, when you can game the system? It is the same attitude seen in our current congress, "It is better to be subservient to oil producing countries than gain energy independence". We are met with a constant cacophony of can't, won't and doesn't from our senators and congressmen. What happened to can and will? Aha, they have fallen prey to our victim mentality and are now victims themselves! Let's suck it up, take responsibility for our decisions and move forward.

June 27, 2008 at 11:39 am

Anthony V. Petricca

When will someone tell the US public that we will have no control of speculation effects on Oil? Speculation is a global enterprise! The US laws do not curtail global trade. If Congress wishes to control commodity transaction effects on the US economy, They would be better served by eliminating the "Splash and Dash" subsidy loophole and/or creating a hefty export TAX on Biodiesl, Soy,Corn, Canola and their derivatives. Malaysia and Indonesia temporarily, and frequently, excise this type of tax to control their internal prices vs consumption/exports.

June 28, 2008 at 8:33 am

Ted McKeown

Contrary to what US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman says I don't think supply and demand are really causing the problem. There are to many other factors at play here. Too many middle men skimming profits. Too much manipulation of supplies and inventories. The price of oil nearly doubled and gas went up a third in just one year and yet figures are coming out that indicate we are using less gas, not more, probably because people are cutting back on gas. That clearly means supply and demand have nothing to do with these prices. Speculation is driving prices !!! Lawmakers blame loopholes in commodities trading like the Swaps loophole or Enron Loophole. Whatever you want to call it, It's a get rich quick scheme and not much less obvious than a pyramid scheme. There is no way supply is causing this gas crisis. I put the full blame on speculators and commodities traders and I am sick of the smoke and mirrors. The meeting in Saudi Arabia hasn't achieved any substantial results from what I can see. The price of oil is still going up. There must be something else that's driving prices up and I think I know what it is. Although il appears to be a good hedge against inflation, a lower dollar and a low oil supply, in reality nothing could be farther from the truth. The main thing driving inflation is oil prices and as inflation goes higher investors buy more oil driving inflation higher again. Some experts predict this will trigger the worldwide recession. This will result in lower gas consumption and it will free up more gas supplies.. I am no expert but even I can see the writing on the wall. Investors are going to loose their shirts on oil. We may be looking at another ENRON. Hedge funds will topple leaving old age pensioners with nothing. The government won't be able to bail them out this time because the cost would be far to great. The CFTC and ICE will be too slow to react to the cracks forming in commodities trading so the govenment will finally step in. By that time it will probably be too late. www.nbtv.ca

June 28, 2008 at 7:38 pm

about this blog

  • Brian Sullivan joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in April 2008 as an anchor. He co-anchors the 10am-12pm ET hours of the FOX Business block. Prior to joining FBN, Sullivan served as an anchor for Bloomberg Television where he hosted the programs Morning Call and In Focus.

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